LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA
We have designed, developed, and tested a long-range forecasting system for producing forecasts of surface air temperatures and precipitation rates in the Korean Peninsula region at leads of two months for each calendar month. We tested predictors based on (1) indices of the Arctic Oscillation, El N...
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Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
2013
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ftnavalpschool:oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/32888 2024-06-09T07:43:54+00:00 LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA Reitz, Nicholas J. Murphree, Tom Meyer, David Meteorology 2013-03 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10945/32888 unknown Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School https://hdl.handle.net/10945/32888 Korea Precipitation Precipitation Rates Temperature Climate Climate Variations Climate Anomalies Climate Prediction Arctic Oscillation El Nino La Nina West Pacific Pattern Pacific/North American Pattern North Atlantic Oscillation Teleconnection Long-Range Forecasting Statistical Forecast Meteorology 2013 ftnavalpschool 2024-05-15T00:49:42Z We have designed, developed, and tested a long-range forecasting system for producing forecasts of surface air temperatures and precipitation rates in the Korean Peninsula region at leads of two months for each calendar month. We tested predictors based on (1) indices of the Arctic Oscillation, El Nino/La Nina, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific/North American Pattern, and the West Pacific Pattern; (2) 850 hectopascal geopotential heights and sea surface temperatures in specific regions; (3) persistence; and (4) year (to represent long-term trends). Our forecasting system includes 24 multiple linear regression models, one for temperature and one for precipitation for each month. Each model uses a unique set of predictors. We tested each model by conducting 43 years of cross-validated hindcasting for our 1970-2012 study period. The hindcast results showed that, overall, the models had skill in predicting above normal, near normal, and below normal temperatures and precipitation rates for the Korean Peninsula (e.g., Heidke skill scores 0). We used our January models to successfully forecast temperatures and precipitation for January 2013. We also developed a series of forecaster worksheets to be used to produce forecasts for the Korean Peninsula. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Captain, United States Air Force http://archive.org/details/longrangeforecas1094532888 Other/Unknown Material Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Naval Postgraduate School: Calhoun Arctic Pacific |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Naval Postgraduate School: Calhoun |
op_collection_id |
ftnavalpschool |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Korea Precipitation Precipitation Rates Temperature Climate Climate Variations Climate Anomalies Climate Prediction Arctic Oscillation El Nino La Nina West Pacific Pattern Pacific/North American Pattern North Atlantic Oscillation Teleconnection Long-Range Forecasting Statistical Forecast Meteorology |
spellingShingle |
Korea Precipitation Precipitation Rates Temperature Climate Climate Variations Climate Anomalies Climate Prediction Arctic Oscillation El Nino La Nina West Pacific Pattern Pacific/North American Pattern North Atlantic Oscillation Teleconnection Long-Range Forecasting Statistical Forecast Meteorology Reitz, Nicholas J. LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA |
topic_facet |
Korea Precipitation Precipitation Rates Temperature Climate Climate Variations Climate Anomalies Climate Prediction Arctic Oscillation El Nino La Nina West Pacific Pattern Pacific/North American Pattern North Atlantic Oscillation Teleconnection Long-Range Forecasting Statistical Forecast Meteorology |
description |
We have designed, developed, and tested a long-range forecasting system for producing forecasts of surface air temperatures and precipitation rates in the Korean Peninsula region at leads of two months for each calendar month. We tested predictors based on (1) indices of the Arctic Oscillation, El Nino/La Nina, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific/North American Pattern, and the West Pacific Pattern; (2) 850 hectopascal geopotential heights and sea surface temperatures in specific regions; (3) persistence; and (4) year (to represent long-term trends). Our forecasting system includes 24 multiple linear regression models, one for temperature and one for precipitation for each month. Each model uses a unique set of predictors. We tested each model by conducting 43 years of cross-validated hindcasting for our 1970-2012 study period. The hindcast results showed that, overall, the models had skill in predicting above normal, near normal, and below normal temperatures and precipitation rates for the Korean Peninsula (e.g., Heidke skill scores 0). We used our January models to successfully forecast temperatures and precipitation for January 2013. We also developed a series of forecaster worksheets to be used to produce forecasts for the Korean Peninsula. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Captain, United States Air Force http://archive.org/details/longrangeforecas1094532888 |
author2 |
Murphree, Tom Meyer, David Meteorology |
author |
Reitz, Nicholas J. |
author_facet |
Reitz, Nicholas J. |
author_sort |
Reitz, Nicholas J. |
title |
LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA |
title_short |
LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA |
title_full |
LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA |
title_fullStr |
LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA |
title_full_unstemmed |
LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA |
title_sort |
long-range forecasting of surface air temperature and precipitation for the korean peninsula |
publisher |
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/32888 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/32888 |
_version_ |
1801372734281744384 |