Experiments in forecasting atmospheric marine horizontal visibility using model output statistics with conditional probabilities of discretized parameters.
This report describes the development and application of a program to forecast important air/ocean parameters using the method (s) of model output statistics. The focus of this operationally oriented study is to forecast atmospheric marine horizontal visibility using a discrete analysis of observed...
Main Author: | |
---|---|
Other Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Thesis |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
1984
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10945/19336 |
id |
ftnavalpschool:oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/19336 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftnavalpschool:oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/19336 2024-06-09T07:47:52+00:00 Experiments in forecasting atmospheric marine horizontal visibility using model output statistics with conditional probabilities of discretized parameters. Karl, Michael L. Renard, R.J. Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.) Meteorology Preisendorfer, Rudolph W. 1984-06 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10945/19336 en_US eng Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School https://hdl.handle.net/10945/19336 This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. model output statistics visibility North Pacific Ocean visibility North Atlantic Ocean visibility marine visibility visibility forecasting discretization conditional probabilities categorical forecasting ocean areas homogeneous ocean areas thresholds linear regression natural regression maximum probability Meteorology Thesis 1984 ftnavalpschool 2024-05-15T00:39:30Z This report describes the development and application of a program to forecast important air/ocean parameters using the method (s) of model output statistics. The focus of this operationally oriented study is to forecast atmospheric marine horizontal visibility using a discrete analysis of observed visibility and the Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model output parameters. Three strategies (two based on maximum-probability and one based on natural-regression) are compared to two multiple linear regression methods. The primary data set is from a North Atlantic Ocean area bounded approximately by the North American coast from Norfolk, Va. to St. Johns, Newfoundland, and then eastward to about 37.5°W. Both the dependent and independent data were derived from the same basic set. New or unfamiliar concepts, in addition to the primary methodology, include the statistical division of the North Atlantic Ocean into physically homogeneous areas, two new threshold models for the application of linear regression equations, linear regression based upon a 'decision-tree' concept, functional dependence of predictors and class errors. Results show that the methodology proposed by Preisendorfer does out perform multiple linear regression. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy http://archive.org/details/experimentsinfor1094519336 Thesis Newfoundland North Atlantic Naval Postgraduate School: Calhoun Pacific |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Naval Postgraduate School: Calhoun |
op_collection_id |
ftnavalpschool |
language |
English |
topic |
model output statistics visibility North Pacific Ocean visibility North Atlantic Ocean visibility marine visibility visibility forecasting discretization conditional probabilities categorical forecasting ocean areas homogeneous ocean areas thresholds linear regression natural regression maximum probability Meteorology |
spellingShingle |
model output statistics visibility North Pacific Ocean visibility North Atlantic Ocean visibility marine visibility visibility forecasting discretization conditional probabilities categorical forecasting ocean areas homogeneous ocean areas thresholds linear regression natural regression maximum probability Meteorology Karl, Michael L. Experiments in forecasting atmospheric marine horizontal visibility using model output statistics with conditional probabilities of discretized parameters. |
topic_facet |
model output statistics visibility North Pacific Ocean visibility North Atlantic Ocean visibility marine visibility visibility forecasting discretization conditional probabilities categorical forecasting ocean areas homogeneous ocean areas thresholds linear regression natural regression maximum probability Meteorology |
description |
This report describes the development and application of a program to forecast important air/ocean parameters using the method (s) of model output statistics. The focus of this operationally oriented study is to forecast atmospheric marine horizontal visibility using a discrete analysis of observed visibility and the Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model output parameters. Three strategies (two based on maximum-probability and one based on natural-regression) are compared to two multiple linear regression methods. The primary data set is from a North Atlantic Ocean area bounded approximately by the North American coast from Norfolk, Va. to St. Johns, Newfoundland, and then eastward to about 37.5°W. Both the dependent and independent data were derived from the same basic set. New or unfamiliar concepts, in addition to the primary methodology, include the statistical division of the North Atlantic Ocean into physically homogeneous areas, two new threshold models for the application of linear regression equations, linear regression based upon a 'decision-tree' concept, functional dependence of predictors and class errors. Results show that the methodology proposed by Preisendorfer does out perform multiple linear regression. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy http://archive.org/details/experimentsinfor1094519336 |
author2 |
Renard, R.J. Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.) Meteorology Preisendorfer, Rudolph W. |
format |
Thesis |
author |
Karl, Michael L. |
author_facet |
Karl, Michael L. |
author_sort |
Karl, Michael L. |
title |
Experiments in forecasting atmospheric marine horizontal visibility using model output statistics with conditional probabilities of discretized parameters. |
title_short |
Experiments in forecasting atmospheric marine horizontal visibility using model output statistics with conditional probabilities of discretized parameters. |
title_full |
Experiments in forecasting atmospheric marine horizontal visibility using model output statistics with conditional probabilities of discretized parameters. |
title_fullStr |
Experiments in forecasting atmospheric marine horizontal visibility using model output statistics with conditional probabilities of discretized parameters. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Experiments in forecasting atmospheric marine horizontal visibility using model output statistics with conditional probabilities of discretized parameters. |
title_sort |
experiments in forecasting atmospheric marine horizontal visibility using model output statistics with conditional probabilities of discretized parameters. |
publisher |
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School |
publishDate |
1984 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/19336 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
Newfoundland North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Newfoundland North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/19336 |
op_rights |
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. |
_version_ |
1801379332806934528 |