Further verifications of and experiments to improve the MODIFIED HATRACK scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones
The MODIFIED HATRACK (MODHATR) scheme for forecasting tropical cyclone motion consists of a numerical steering component using geostrophic winds derived from Fleet Numerical Weather Central's SR height field to steer the storm center, and a statistical modification component to correct for bias...
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Monterey, California; Naval Postgraduate School
1971
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ftnavalpschool:oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/15729 2024-06-09T07:48:13+00:00 Further verifications of and experiments to improve the MODIFIED HATRACK scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones Colgan, Stephen Gregory Renard, R. J. Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.) Department of Meteorology 1971-09 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10945/15729 en_US eng Monterey, California; Naval Postgraduate School https://hdl.handle.net/10945/15729 This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. MODIFIED HATRACK HATRACK Forecasting hurricane movement Tropical cyclones Atlantic hurricanes Hurricanes Meteorology Thesis 1971 ftnavalpschool 2024-05-15T00:42:55Z The MODIFIED HATRACK (MODHATR) scheme for forecasting tropical cyclone motion consists of a numerical steering component using geostrophic winds derived from Fleet Numerical Weather Central's SR height field to steer the storm center, and a statistical modification component to correct for bias and improve forecast accuracy. MODHATR forecasts from the 1969 and 1970 North Atlantic hurricane seasons are analyzed, and average errors presented and compared to earlier years' results. MODHATR forecasts are shown to be superior on the average to OFFICIAL forecasts, NHC-67, and TYRACK forecast schemes for forecast intervals to 48 hours, with relative accuracy of MODHATR decreasing with time. Results of an experiment to improve the statistical correction for bias are reported. A level- and mode-selection scheme is investigated which offers some promise of improving forecast accuracy at late forecast intervals. A comparison is made between warning-time and synoptic-time initial-position errors showing synoptic-time positions to be more accurate for initiating MODHATR forecasts. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Lieutenant, United States Navy http://archive.org/details/furtherverificat1094515729 Thesis North Atlantic Naval Postgraduate School: Calhoun |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Naval Postgraduate School: Calhoun |
op_collection_id |
ftnavalpschool |
language |
English |
topic |
MODIFIED HATRACK HATRACK Forecasting hurricane movement Tropical cyclones Atlantic hurricanes Hurricanes Meteorology |
spellingShingle |
MODIFIED HATRACK HATRACK Forecasting hurricane movement Tropical cyclones Atlantic hurricanes Hurricanes Meteorology Colgan, Stephen Gregory Further verifications of and experiments to improve the MODIFIED HATRACK scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones |
topic_facet |
MODIFIED HATRACK HATRACK Forecasting hurricane movement Tropical cyclones Atlantic hurricanes Hurricanes Meteorology |
description |
The MODIFIED HATRACK (MODHATR) scheme for forecasting tropical cyclone motion consists of a numerical steering component using geostrophic winds derived from Fleet Numerical Weather Central's SR height field to steer the storm center, and a statistical modification component to correct for bias and improve forecast accuracy. MODHATR forecasts from the 1969 and 1970 North Atlantic hurricane seasons are analyzed, and average errors presented and compared to earlier years' results. MODHATR forecasts are shown to be superior on the average to OFFICIAL forecasts, NHC-67, and TYRACK forecast schemes for forecast intervals to 48 hours, with relative accuracy of MODHATR decreasing with time. Results of an experiment to improve the statistical correction for bias are reported. A level- and mode-selection scheme is investigated which offers some promise of improving forecast accuracy at late forecast intervals. A comparison is made between warning-time and synoptic-time initial-position errors showing synoptic-time positions to be more accurate for initiating MODHATR forecasts. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Lieutenant, United States Navy http://archive.org/details/furtherverificat1094515729 |
author2 |
Renard, R. J. Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.) Department of Meteorology |
format |
Thesis |
author |
Colgan, Stephen Gregory |
author_facet |
Colgan, Stephen Gregory |
author_sort |
Colgan, Stephen Gregory |
title |
Further verifications of and experiments to improve the MODIFIED HATRACK scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones |
title_short |
Further verifications of and experiments to improve the MODIFIED HATRACK scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones |
title_full |
Further verifications of and experiments to improve the MODIFIED HATRACK scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones |
title_fullStr |
Further verifications of and experiments to improve the MODIFIED HATRACK scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones |
title_full_unstemmed |
Further verifications of and experiments to improve the MODIFIED HATRACK scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones |
title_sort |
further verifications of and experiments to improve the modified hatrack scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones |
publisher |
Monterey, California; Naval Postgraduate School |
publishDate |
1971 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/15729 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/15729 |
op_rights |
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. |
_version_ |
1801379856720592896 |