Investigation of the sensitivity of a patrolling submarine's capability to gain a detection as a function of increasing surface ship speeds
Numerical integration and Monte Carlo techniques are used in the development of several models in order to determine the effect on probability of random detection of a merchant ship using speeds up to 90 knots by a 10 knot submarine patrolling a back-and-forth barrier. A definite range law for detec...
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U.S. Naval Postgraduate School
1969
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ftnavalpschool:oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/12479 2024-06-09T07:48:13+00:00 Investigation of the sensitivity of a patrolling submarine's capability to gain a detection as a function of increasing surface ship speeds Cyr, Joseph Henry Santos, Leonard Bento Cunningham, Peyton W. Pollock, Stephen M. Naval Postgraduate School Department of Operations Analysis 1969 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10945/12479 en_US eng U.S. Naval Postgraduate School https://hdl.handle.net/10945/12479 This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. Thesis 1969 ftnavalpschool 2024-05-15T00:45:41Z Numerical integration and Monte Carlo techniques are used in the development of several models in order to determine the effect on probability of random detection of a merchant ship using speeds up to 90 knots by a 10 knot submarine patrolling a back-and-forth barrier. A definite range law for detection is assumed. Individual encounter models are developed for ship tracks which cross the midpoint of the submarine patrol line at various angles. The models are extended to include the assumption of a normal-distribution of crossing points. Computer programs of the models, written in the FORTRAN IV language, are included. The results are applied in a numerical example. It is concluded that while increases in ship speeds do result in a substantial decrease in probability of detection by a submarine in the case of a single barrier transit, a speed advantage alone when applied to a typical transit of the North Atlantic will not appreciably decrease the overall detection probability. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy http://archive.org/details/investigationofs1094512479 Thesis North Atlantic Naval Postgraduate School: Calhoun |
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Naval Postgraduate School: Calhoun |
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ftnavalpschool |
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English |
description |
Numerical integration and Monte Carlo techniques are used in the development of several models in order to determine the effect on probability of random detection of a merchant ship using speeds up to 90 knots by a 10 knot submarine patrolling a back-and-forth barrier. A definite range law for detection is assumed. Individual encounter models are developed for ship tracks which cross the midpoint of the submarine patrol line at various angles. The models are extended to include the assumption of a normal-distribution of crossing points. Computer programs of the models, written in the FORTRAN IV language, are included. The results are applied in a numerical example. It is concluded that while increases in ship speeds do result in a substantial decrease in probability of detection by a submarine in the case of a single barrier transit, a speed advantage alone when applied to a typical transit of the North Atlantic will not appreciably decrease the overall detection probability. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy http://archive.org/details/investigationofs1094512479 |
author2 |
Cunningham, Peyton W. Pollock, Stephen M. Naval Postgraduate School Department of Operations Analysis |
format |
Thesis |
author |
Cyr, Joseph Henry Santos, Leonard Bento |
spellingShingle |
Cyr, Joseph Henry Santos, Leonard Bento Investigation of the sensitivity of a patrolling submarine's capability to gain a detection as a function of increasing surface ship speeds |
author_facet |
Cyr, Joseph Henry Santos, Leonard Bento |
author_sort |
Cyr, Joseph Henry |
title |
Investigation of the sensitivity of a patrolling submarine's capability to gain a detection as a function of increasing surface ship speeds |
title_short |
Investigation of the sensitivity of a patrolling submarine's capability to gain a detection as a function of increasing surface ship speeds |
title_full |
Investigation of the sensitivity of a patrolling submarine's capability to gain a detection as a function of increasing surface ship speeds |
title_fullStr |
Investigation of the sensitivity of a patrolling submarine's capability to gain a detection as a function of increasing surface ship speeds |
title_full_unstemmed |
Investigation of the sensitivity of a patrolling submarine's capability to gain a detection as a function of increasing surface ship speeds |
title_sort |
investigation of the sensitivity of a patrolling submarine's capability to gain a detection as a function of increasing surface ship speeds |
publisher |
U.S. Naval Postgraduate School |
publishDate |
1969 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/12479 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/12479 |
op_rights |
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. |
_version_ |
1801379846970933248 |