Current State of the Global Operational Aerosol Multi-Model Ensemble: An Update from the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP)

• Main Authors: Pradhan, Yaswant, Kipling, Zak, Sampson, Charles R., Carcia-Pando, Carlos Perez, Eck, Thomas F., Bhattacharjee, Partha, Rubin, Juli I., Wang, Jun, Brooks, Malcolm E., Kouznetsov, Rostislav, Westphal, Douglas L., Asencio, Nicole, Yumimoto, Keiya, Ades, Melanie, Hyer, Edward J., Colarco, Peter R., Benedetti, Angela, Jorba, Oriol, Zhang, Jianglong, Xian, Peng, Mikhail, Sofiev, Guth, Jonathan, Tanaka, Taichu, da Silva, Arlindo M., Basart, Sara, Reid, Jeffrey S.
• Format: Other/Unknown Material
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2019
• Subjects: Geophysics; Aerosol Robotic Network
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20190000702

Since the first International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) multimodel ensemble (MME) study, the number of ICAP global operational aerosol models has increased from five to nine. An update of the current ICAP status is provided, along with an evaluation of the performance of the ICAPMME over 20122017, with a focus on the June 2016May 2017 time period. Evaluated with ground based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) and data assimilation quality Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieval products, the ICAPMME AOD consensus remains the overall top scoring and most consistent performer among all models in terms of root mean square error (RMSE), bias and correlation for total, fine and coarse mode AODs as well as dust AOD; this is similar to the first ICAPMME study. Further, over the years, the performance of ICAPMME is relatively stable and reliable compared to more variability in the individual models. The extent to which the AOD forecast error of the ICAPMME can be predicted is also examined. Leading predictors are found to be the consensus mean and spread. Regression models of absolute forecast errors were built for AOD forecasts of different lengths for potential applications. ICAPMME performance in terms of modal AOD RMSEs of the 21 regionally representative sites over 20122017 suggests a general tendency for model improvements in finemode AOD, especially over Asia. No significant improvement in coarsemode AOD is found overall for this time period.