Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements
The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing...
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ftnasantrs:oai:casi.ntrs.nasa.gov:20180001316 2023-05-15T15:04:05+02:00 Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements Hayhoe, K. Easterling, D. R. LeGrande, A. N. Horton, R. Kopp, R. E. Kunkel, K. E. Hall, T. Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available 2017 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20180001316 unknown Document ID: 20180001316 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20180001316 Copyright, Use by or on behalf of the U.S. Government permitted CASI Meteorology and Climatology GSFC-E-DAA-TN48987 Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment; I; 411-429 2017 ftnasantrs 2019-07-20T23:19:21Z The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing cycles, within and between components of the Earth system can dampen changes (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). However, their stabilizing effects render such feedbacks of less concern from a risk perspective than positive feedbacks, or self-reinforcing cycles. Positive feedbacks magnify both natural and anthropogenic changes. Some Earth system components, such as arctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets, may exhibit thresholds beyond which these self-reinforcing cycles can drive the component, or the entire system, into a radically different state. Although the probabilities of these state shifts may be difficult to assess, their consequences could be high, potentially exceeding anything anticipated by climate model projections for the coming century. Other/Unknown Material Arctic Climate change Sea ice NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) Arctic |
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Open Polar |
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
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ftnasantrs |
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unknown |
topic |
Meteorology and Climatology |
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Meteorology and Climatology Hayhoe, K. Easterling, D. R. LeGrande, A. N. Horton, R. Kopp, R. E. Kunkel, K. E. Hall, T. Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Climatology |
description |
The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing cycles, within and between components of the Earth system can dampen changes (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). However, their stabilizing effects render such feedbacks of less concern from a risk perspective than positive feedbacks, or self-reinforcing cycles. Positive feedbacks magnify both natural and anthropogenic changes. Some Earth system components, such as arctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets, may exhibit thresholds beyond which these self-reinforcing cycles can drive the component, or the entire system, into a radically different state. Although the probabilities of these state shifts may be difficult to assess, their consequences could be high, potentially exceeding anything anticipated by climate model projections for the coming century. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Hayhoe, K. Easterling, D. R. LeGrande, A. N. Horton, R. Kopp, R. E. Kunkel, K. E. Hall, T. |
author_facet |
Hayhoe, K. Easterling, D. R. LeGrande, A. N. Horton, R. Kopp, R. E. Kunkel, K. E. Hall, T. |
author_sort |
Hayhoe, K. |
title |
Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements |
title_short |
Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements |
title_full |
Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements |
title_fullStr |
Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements |
title_full_unstemmed |
Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements |
title_sort |
chapter 15: potential surprises: compound extremes and tipping elements |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20180001316 |
op_coverage |
Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
CASI |
op_relation |
Document ID: 20180001316 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20180001316 |
op_rights |
Copyright, Use by or on behalf of the U.S. Government permitted |
_version_ |
1766335907895443456 |