GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

• Main Authors: Vikhliaev, Yury, Schubert, Siegfried, Andrews, Lauren, Koster, Randal, Akella, Santha, Zhao, Bin, Borovikov, Anna, Chang, Yehui, Marshak, Jelena, Kovach, Robin, Li, Zhao, Cullather, Richard, Vernieres, Guillaume, Molod, Andrea, Suarez, Max, Hackert, Eric, Trayanov, Atanas, Barahona, Donifan
• Format: Other/Unknown Material
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2017
• Subjects: Geosciences (General); Sea ice
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20180000715

A new version of the modeling and analysis system used to produce sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts has just been released by the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 12 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a free-running coupled simulation with the new system and results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results from retrospective forecasts show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only trade off is an increased double ITCZ, which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.