GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System
A new version of the modeling and analysis system used to produce sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts has just been released by the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 12 degree globally), contains a substantially...
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ftnasantrs:oai:casi.ntrs.nasa.gov:20180000715 2023-05-15T18:18:25+02:00 GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System Vikhliaev, Yury Schubert, Siegfried Andrews, Lauren Koster, Randal Akella, Santha Zhao, Bin Borovikov, Anna Chang, Yehui Marshak, Jelena Kovach, Robin Li, Zhao Cullather, Richard Vernieres, Guillaume Molod, Andrea Suarez, Max Hackert, Eric Trayanov, Atanas Barahona, Donifan Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available December 11, 2017 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20180000715 unknown Document ID: 20180000715 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20180000715 Copyright, Use by or on behalf of the U.S. Government permitted CASI Geosciences (General) GSFC-E-DAA-TN50557 American Geophysical Union 2017 Fall Meeting; 11-15 Dec. 2017; New Orleans, LA; United States 2017 ftnasantrs 2019-07-20T23:20:44Z A new version of the modeling and analysis system used to produce sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts has just been released by the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 12 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a free-running coupled simulation with the new system and results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results from retrospective forecasts show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only trade off is an increased double ITCZ, which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution. Other/Unknown Material Sea ice NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
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Open Polar |
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
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ftnasantrs |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Geosciences (General) |
spellingShingle |
Geosciences (General) Vikhliaev, Yury Schubert, Siegfried Andrews, Lauren Koster, Randal Akella, Santha Zhao, Bin Borovikov, Anna Chang, Yehui Marshak, Jelena Kovach, Robin Li, Zhao Cullather, Richard Vernieres, Guillaume Molod, Andrea Suarez, Max Hackert, Eric Trayanov, Atanas Barahona, Donifan GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System |
topic_facet |
Geosciences (General) |
description |
A new version of the modeling and analysis system used to produce sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts has just been released by the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 12 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a free-running coupled simulation with the new system and results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results from retrospective forecasts show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only trade off is an increased double ITCZ, which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Vikhliaev, Yury Schubert, Siegfried Andrews, Lauren Koster, Randal Akella, Santha Zhao, Bin Borovikov, Anna Chang, Yehui Marshak, Jelena Kovach, Robin Li, Zhao Cullather, Richard Vernieres, Guillaume Molod, Andrea Suarez, Max Hackert, Eric Trayanov, Atanas Barahona, Donifan |
author_facet |
Vikhliaev, Yury Schubert, Siegfried Andrews, Lauren Koster, Randal Akella, Santha Zhao, Bin Borovikov, Anna Chang, Yehui Marshak, Jelena Kovach, Robin Li, Zhao Cullather, Richard Vernieres, Guillaume Molod, Andrea Suarez, Max Hackert, Eric Trayanov, Atanas Barahona, Donifan |
author_sort |
Vikhliaev, Yury |
title |
GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System |
title_short |
GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System |
title_full |
GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System |
title_fullStr |
GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System |
title_full_unstemmed |
GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System |
title_sort |
geos s2s-2_1: gmao's new high resolution seasonal prediction system |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20180000715 |
op_coverage |
Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
CASI |
op_relation |
Document ID: 20180000715 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20180000715 |
op_rights |
Copyright, Use by or on behalf of the U.S. Government permitted |
_version_ |
1766194994738102272 |