GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System
Ensembles of numerical forecasts based on perturbed initial conditions have long been used to improve estimates of both weather and climate forecasts. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5 AOGCM) Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecast Syste...
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ftnasantrs:oai:casi.ntrs.nasa.gov:20170008023 2023-05-15T15:07:00+02:00 GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System Kovach, Robin Vernieres, Guillaume Cullather, Richard Zhao, Bin Li, Zhao Borovikov, Anna Vikhliaev, Yury Marshak, Jelena Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available September 21, 2017 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170008023 unknown Document ID: 20170008023 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170008023 Copyright, Public use permitted CASI Meteorology and Climatology GSFC-E-DAA-TN45265 Climate Dynamics (ISSN 0930-7575) (e-ISSN 1432-0894); 1-27 2017 ftnasantrs 2019-07-20T23:28:16Z Ensembles of numerical forecasts based on perturbed initial conditions have long been used to improve estimates of both weather and climate forecasts. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5 AOGCM) Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecast System has been used routinely by the GMAO since 2008, the current version since 2012. A coupled reanalysis starting in 1980 provides the initial conditions for the 9 month experimental forecasts. Once a month, sea surface temperature from a suite of 11 ensemble forecasts is contributed to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) consensus project, which compares and distributes seasonal forecasts of ENSO events. Since June 2013, GEOS-5 forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice distribution were provided to the Sea-Ice Outlook project. The seasonal forecast output data includes surface fields, atmospheric and ocean fields, as well as sea ice thickness and area, and soil moisture variables. The current paper aims to document the characteristics of the GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system and to highlight forecast biases and skills of selected variables (sea surface temperature, air temperature at 2 m, precipitation and sea ice extent) to be used as a benchmark for the future GMAO seasonal forecast systems and to facilitate comparison with other global seasonal forecast systems. Other/Unknown Material Arctic Sea ice NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
op_collection_id |
ftnasantrs |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Meteorology and Climatology |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Climatology Kovach, Robin Vernieres, Guillaume Cullather, Richard Zhao, Bin Li, Zhao Borovikov, Anna Vikhliaev, Yury Marshak, Jelena GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Climatology |
description |
Ensembles of numerical forecasts based on perturbed initial conditions have long been used to improve estimates of both weather and climate forecasts. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5 AOGCM) Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecast System has been used routinely by the GMAO since 2008, the current version since 2012. A coupled reanalysis starting in 1980 provides the initial conditions for the 9 month experimental forecasts. Once a month, sea surface temperature from a suite of 11 ensemble forecasts is contributed to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) consensus project, which compares and distributes seasonal forecasts of ENSO events. Since June 2013, GEOS-5 forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice distribution were provided to the Sea-Ice Outlook project. The seasonal forecast output data includes surface fields, atmospheric and ocean fields, as well as sea ice thickness and area, and soil moisture variables. The current paper aims to document the characteristics of the GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system and to highlight forecast biases and skills of selected variables (sea surface temperature, air temperature at 2 m, precipitation and sea ice extent) to be used as a benchmark for the future GMAO seasonal forecast systems and to facilitate comparison with other global seasonal forecast systems. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Kovach, Robin Vernieres, Guillaume Cullather, Richard Zhao, Bin Li, Zhao Borovikov, Anna Vikhliaev, Yury Marshak, Jelena |
author_facet |
Kovach, Robin Vernieres, Guillaume Cullather, Richard Zhao, Bin Li, Zhao Borovikov, Anna Vikhliaev, Yury Marshak, Jelena |
author_sort |
Kovach, Robin |
title |
GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System |
title_short |
GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System |
title_full |
GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System |
title_fullStr |
GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System |
title_full_unstemmed |
GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System |
title_sort |
geos-5 seasonal forecast system |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170008023 |
op_coverage |
Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
CASI |
op_relation |
Document ID: 20170008023 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170008023 |
op_rights |
Copyright, Public use permitted |
_version_ |
1766338584395120640 |