Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales
Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally-constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version (GEOS-5) atmospheric general...
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Other/Unknown Material |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170002794 |
id |
ftnasantrs:oai:casi.ntrs.nasa.gov:20170002794 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftnasantrs:oai:casi.ntrs.nasa.gov:20170002794 2023-05-15T17:29:41+02:00 Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales Suarez, Max J. Reale, Oreste Lim, Young-Kwon Auer, Benjamin M. Molod, Andrea M. Schubert, Siegfried D. Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available September 2016 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170002794 unknown Document ID: 20170002794 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170002794 Copyright, Public use permitted CASI Meteorology and Climatology GSFC-E-DAA-TN40683 Journal of Climate (ISSN 0894-8755) (e-ISSN 1520-0442); 29; 18; 6727-6749 2016 ftnasantrs 2019-07-20T23:36:59Z Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally-constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The climate modes investigated are El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The results show that the NAO and AMM can strongly modify and even oppose the well- known ENSO impacts, like in 2005, when a strong positive AMM (associated with warm SSTs and a negative SLP anomaly over the western tropical Atlantic), led to a very active TC season with enhanced TC genesis over the Caribbean Sea and a number of landfalls over North America, under a neutral ENSO condition. On the other end, the weak TC activity during 2013 (characterized by weak negative Nio index) appears caused by a NAO-induced positive SLP anomaly with enhanced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic. During 2010, the combined impact of the three modes produced positive SST anomalies across the entire low-latitudinal Atlantic and a weaker subtropical high, leading to more early recurvers and thus fewer landfalls despite enhanced TC genesis. The study provides evidence that TC number and track are very sensitive to the relative phases and intensities of these three modes, and not just to ENSO alone. Examination of seasonal predictability reveals that predictive skill of the three modes is limited over tropics to sub-tropics, with the AMM having the highest predictability over the North Atlantic, followed by ENSO and NAO. Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
op_collection_id |
ftnasantrs |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Meteorology and Climatology |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Climatology Suarez, Max J. Reale, Oreste Lim, Young-Kwon Auer, Benjamin M. Molod, Andrea M. Schubert, Siegfried D. Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Climatology |
description |
Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally-constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The climate modes investigated are El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The results show that the NAO and AMM can strongly modify and even oppose the well- known ENSO impacts, like in 2005, when a strong positive AMM (associated with warm SSTs and a negative SLP anomaly over the western tropical Atlantic), led to a very active TC season with enhanced TC genesis over the Caribbean Sea and a number of landfalls over North America, under a neutral ENSO condition. On the other end, the weak TC activity during 2013 (characterized by weak negative Nio index) appears caused by a NAO-induced positive SLP anomaly with enhanced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic. During 2010, the combined impact of the three modes produced positive SST anomalies across the entire low-latitudinal Atlantic and a weaker subtropical high, leading to more early recurvers and thus fewer landfalls despite enhanced TC genesis. The study provides evidence that TC number and track are very sensitive to the relative phases and intensities of these three modes, and not just to ENSO alone. Examination of seasonal predictability reveals that predictive skill of the three modes is limited over tropics to sub-tropics, with the AMM having the highest predictability over the North Atlantic, followed by ENSO and NAO. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Suarez, Max J. Reale, Oreste Lim, Young-Kwon Auer, Benjamin M. Molod, Andrea M. Schubert, Siegfried D. |
author_facet |
Suarez, Max J. Reale, Oreste Lim, Young-Kwon Auer, Benjamin M. Molod, Andrea M. Schubert, Siegfried D. |
author_sort |
Suarez, Max J. |
title |
Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales |
title_short |
Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales |
title_full |
Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales |
title_fullStr |
Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales |
title_full_unstemmed |
Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales |
title_sort |
large-scale controls on atlantic tropical cyclone activity on seasonal time scales |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170002794 |
op_coverage |
Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
CASI |
op_relation |
Document ID: 20170002794 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170002794 |
op_rights |
Copyright, Public use permitted |
_version_ |
1766124465570185216 |