Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models
Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into th...
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ftnasantrs:oai:casi.ntrs.nasa.gov:20160000213 2023-05-15T14:51:52+02:00 Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models Abalichin, J. Klekociuk, A. Morgenstern, O. Langematz, U. Ayarzaguena, B. Michou, M. Akiyoshi, H. Polvani, L. M Oman, L. Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available January 4, 2015 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160000213 unknown Document ID: 20160000213 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160000213 Copyright, Distribution as joint owner in the copyright CASI Meteorology and Climatology GSFC-E-DAA-TN20125 American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting; 4-8 Jan. 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States|Conference on the Middle Atmosphere; 4-8 Jan. 2015; Phoenix, AZ; United States 2015 ftnasantrs 2019-07-20T23:58:58Z Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena. Other/Unknown Material Arctic Climate change polar night Sea ice NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
op_collection_id |
ftnasantrs |
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unknown |
topic |
Meteorology and Climatology |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Climatology Abalichin, J. Klekociuk, A. Morgenstern, O. Langematz, U. Ayarzaguena, B. Michou, M. Akiyoshi, H. Polvani, L. M Oman, L. Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Climatology |
description |
Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Abalichin, J. Klekociuk, A. Morgenstern, O. Langematz, U. Ayarzaguena, B. Michou, M. Akiyoshi, H. Polvani, L. M Oman, L. |
author_facet |
Abalichin, J. Klekociuk, A. Morgenstern, O. Langematz, U. Ayarzaguena, B. Michou, M. Akiyoshi, H. Polvani, L. M Oman, L. |
author_sort |
Abalichin, J. |
title |
Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models |
title_short |
Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models |
title_full |
Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models |
title_fullStr |
Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models |
title_sort |
future changes in major stratospheric warmings in ccmi models |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160000213 |
op_coverage |
Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change polar night Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change polar night Sea ice |
op_source |
CASI |
op_relation |
Document ID: 20160000213 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160000213 |
op_rights |
Copyright, Distribution as joint owner in the copyright |
_version_ |
1766323008725581824 |