Modeled Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness
Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration over recent decades. However, observations of decadal trends in Antarctic ice thickness, and hence ice volume, do not currently exist. In this study a model of t...
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ftnasantrs:oai:casi.ntrs.nasa.gov:20150021877 2023-05-15T13:35:11+02:00 Modeled Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness Holland, Paul R. Bruneau, Nicolas Losch, Martin Kwok, Ron Enright, Clare Kurtz, Nathan T. Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available May 15, 2014 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150021877 unknown Document ID: 20150021877 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150021877 Copyright, Distribution as joint owner in the copyright CASI Geophysics Oceanography GSFC-E-DAA-TN21999 Journal of Climate(ISSN 0894-8755 ); Volume 27; No. 10; 3784-3801 2014 ftnasantrs 2016-03-12T23:54:53Z Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration over recent decades. However, observations of decadal trends in Antarctic ice thickness, and hence ice volume, do not currently exist. In this study a model of the Southern Ocean and its sea ice, forced by atmospheric reanalyzes, is used to assess 1992-2010 trends in ice thickness and volume. The model successfully reproduces observations of mean ice concentration, thickness, and drift, and decadal trends in ice concentration and drift, imparting some confidence in the hindcasted trends in ice thickness. The model suggests that overall Antarctic sea ice volume has increased by approximately 30 cu km/yr (0.4%/ yr) as an equal result of areal expansion (20 x 10(exp 3) sq km/yr or 0.2%/yr) and thickening (1.5 mm/yr or 0.2%/yr). This ice volume increase is an order of magnitude smaller than the Arctic decrease, and about half the size of the increased freshwater supply from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Similarly to the observed ice concentration trends, the small overall increase in modeled ice volume is actually the residual of much larger opposing regional trends. Thickness changes near the ice edge follow observed concentration changes, with increasing concentration corresponding to increased thickness. Ice thickness increases are also found in the inner pack in the Amundsen and Weddell Seas, where the model suggests that observed ice-drift trends directed toward the coast have caused dynamical thickening in autumn and winter. Modeled changes are predominantly dynamic in origin in the Pacific sector and thermodynamic elsewhere. Other/Unknown Material Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Ice Sheet Sea ice Southern Ocean NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) Antarctic Arctic Pacific Southern Ocean The Antarctic Weddell |
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
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topic |
Geophysics Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Geophysics Oceanography Holland, Paul R. Bruneau, Nicolas Losch, Martin Kwok, Ron Enright, Clare Kurtz, Nathan T. Modeled Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness |
topic_facet |
Geophysics Oceanography |
description |
Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration over recent decades. However, observations of decadal trends in Antarctic ice thickness, and hence ice volume, do not currently exist. In this study a model of the Southern Ocean and its sea ice, forced by atmospheric reanalyzes, is used to assess 1992-2010 trends in ice thickness and volume. The model successfully reproduces observations of mean ice concentration, thickness, and drift, and decadal trends in ice concentration and drift, imparting some confidence in the hindcasted trends in ice thickness. The model suggests that overall Antarctic sea ice volume has increased by approximately 30 cu km/yr (0.4%/ yr) as an equal result of areal expansion (20 x 10(exp 3) sq km/yr or 0.2%/yr) and thickening (1.5 mm/yr or 0.2%/yr). This ice volume increase is an order of magnitude smaller than the Arctic decrease, and about half the size of the increased freshwater supply from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Similarly to the observed ice concentration trends, the small overall increase in modeled ice volume is actually the residual of much larger opposing regional trends. Thickness changes near the ice edge follow observed concentration changes, with increasing concentration corresponding to increased thickness. Ice thickness increases are also found in the inner pack in the Amundsen and Weddell Seas, where the model suggests that observed ice-drift trends directed toward the coast have caused dynamical thickening in autumn and winter. Modeled changes are predominantly dynamic in origin in the Pacific sector and thermodynamic elsewhere. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Holland, Paul R. Bruneau, Nicolas Losch, Martin Kwok, Ron Enright, Clare Kurtz, Nathan T. |
author_facet |
Holland, Paul R. Bruneau, Nicolas Losch, Martin Kwok, Ron Enright, Clare Kurtz, Nathan T. |
author_sort |
Holland, Paul R. |
title |
Modeled Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness |
title_short |
Modeled Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness |
title_full |
Modeled Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness |
title_fullStr |
Modeled Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeled Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness |
title_sort |
modeled trends in antarctic sea ice thickness |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150021877 |
op_coverage |
Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic Pacific Southern Ocean The Antarctic Weddell |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic Pacific Southern Ocean The Antarctic Weddell |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Ice Sheet Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Ice Sheet Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
CASI |
op_relation |
Document ID: 20150021877 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150021877 |
op_rights |
Copyright, Distribution as joint owner in the copyright |
_version_ |
1766062121775267840 |