Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
The recent decline in perennial sea ice cover in Arctic Ocean is a topic of enormous scientific interest and has relevance to a broad variety of scientific disciplines and human endeavors including biological and physical oceanography, atmospheric circulation, high latitude ecology, the sustainabili...
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ftnasantrs:oai:casi.ntrs.nasa.gov:20150021053 2023-05-15T14:50:12+02:00 Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Zhao, Bin Keppenne, Christian L. Pawson, Steven Vernieres, Guillaume Schubert, Siegfried D. Suarez, Max J. Cullather, Richard I. Marshak, Jelena Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available June 2015 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150021053 unknown Document ID: 20150021053 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150021053 Copyright, Distribution as joint owner in the copyright CASI Oceanography GSFC-E-DAA-TN25029 2015 ftnasantrs 2019-07-21T06:09:27Z The recent decline in perennial sea ice cover in Arctic Ocean is a topic of enormous scientific interest and has relevance to a broad variety of scientific disciplines and human endeavors including biological and physical oceanography, atmospheric circulation, high latitude ecology, the sustainability of indigenous communities, commerce, and resource exploration. A credible seasonal prediction of sea ice extent would be of substantial use to many of the stakeholders in these fields and may also reveal details on the physical processes that result in the current trends in the ice cover. Forecasts are challenging due in part to limitations in the polar observing network, the large variability in the climate system, and an incomplete knowledge of the significant processes. Nevertheless it is a useful to understand the current capabilities of high latitude seasonal forecasting and identify areas where such forecasts may be improved. Since 2008 the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) has conducted a seasonal forecasting contest in which the average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September (the month of the annual extent minimum) is predicted from available forecasts in early June, July, and August. The competition is known as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) but recently came under the auspices of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and multi-agency funded project to evaluate the SIO. The forecasts are submitted based on modeling, statistical, and heuristic methods. Forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent from the GMAO are derived from seasonal prediction system of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The projections are made in order to understand the relative skill of the forecasting system and to determine the effects of future improvements to the system. This years prediction is for a September average Arctic ice extent of 5.030.41 million km2. Other/Unknown Material Arctic Arctic Ocean Arctic Research Consortium of the United States Sea ice NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) Arctic Arctic Ocean |
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
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ftnasantrs |
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unknown |
topic |
Oceanography |
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Oceanography Zhao, Bin Keppenne, Christian L. Pawson, Steven Vernieres, Guillaume Schubert, Siegfried D. Suarez, Max J. Cullather, Richard I. Marshak, Jelena Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office |
topic_facet |
Oceanography |
description |
The recent decline in perennial sea ice cover in Arctic Ocean is a topic of enormous scientific interest and has relevance to a broad variety of scientific disciplines and human endeavors including biological and physical oceanography, atmospheric circulation, high latitude ecology, the sustainability of indigenous communities, commerce, and resource exploration. A credible seasonal prediction of sea ice extent would be of substantial use to many of the stakeholders in these fields and may also reveal details on the physical processes that result in the current trends in the ice cover. Forecasts are challenging due in part to limitations in the polar observing network, the large variability in the climate system, and an incomplete knowledge of the significant processes. Nevertheless it is a useful to understand the current capabilities of high latitude seasonal forecasting and identify areas where such forecasts may be improved. Since 2008 the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) has conducted a seasonal forecasting contest in which the average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September (the month of the annual extent minimum) is predicted from available forecasts in early June, July, and August. The competition is known as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) but recently came under the auspices of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and multi-agency funded project to evaluate the SIO. The forecasts are submitted based on modeling, statistical, and heuristic methods. Forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent from the GMAO are derived from seasonal prediction system of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The projections are made in order to understand the relative skill of the forecasting system and to determine the effects of future improvements to the system. This years prediction is for a September average Arctic ice extent of 5.030.41 million km2. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Zhao, Bin Keppenne, Christian L. Pawson, Steven Vernieres, Guillaume Schubert, Siegfried D. Suarez, Max J. Cullather, Richard I. Marshak, Jelena |
author_facet |
Zhao, Bin Keppenne, Christian L. Pawson, Steven Vernieres, Guillaume Schubert, Siegfried D. Suarez, Max J. Cullather, Richard I. Marshak, Jelena |
author_sort |
Zhao, Bin |
title |
Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office |
title_short |
Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office |
title_full |
Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office |
title_fullStr |
Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office |
title_sort |
sea ice outlook for september 2015 june report - nasa global modeling and assimilation office |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150021053 |
op_coverage |
Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Arctic Research Consortium of the United States Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Arctic Research Consortium of the United States Sea ice |
op_source |
CASI |
op_relation |
Document ID: 20150021053 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150021053 |
op_rights |
Copyright, Distribution as joint owner in the copyright |
_version_ |
1766321247708250112 |