Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to ass...

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Main Authors: MacLachlan, Craig, Kim, Hye-Mi, Lee, Myong-In, Arribas, Alberto, Schubert, Siegfried D., Kang, Hyun-Suk, Im, Jungho, Kang, Daehyun, Kim, Daehyun
Format: Other/Unknown Material
Language:unknown
Published: 2014
Subjects:
Meteorology and Climatology
Arctic
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017691
id ftnasantrs:oai:casi.ntrs.nasa.gov:20140017691
record_format openpolar
spelling ftnasantrs:oai:casi.ntrs.nasa.gov:20140017691 2023-05-15T14:55:02+02:00 Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems MacLachlan, Craig Kim, Hye-Mi Lee, Myong-In Arribas, Alberto Schubert, Siegfried D. Kang, Hyun-Suk Im, Jungho Kang, Daehyun Kim, Daehyun Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available May 28, 2014 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017691 unknown Document ID: 20140017691 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017691 Copyright, Distribution as joint owner in the copyright CASI Meteorology and Climatology GSFC-E-DAA-TN17649 Geophysical Research Letters; 41; 10; 3577-3585 2014 ftnasantrs 2019-07-21T00:20:46Z This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to assess the skill of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the AO. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper level wind, and precipitation associated with the different phases of the AO. The results demonstrate that most EPSs improve upon persistence skill scores for lead times up to 2 months in boreal winter, suggesting some potential for skillful prediction of the AO and its associated climate anomalies at seasonal time scales. It is also found that the skill of AO forecasts during the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that of the earlier period (1983-1996). Other/Unknown Material Arctic NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) Arctic
institution Open Polar
collection NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
op_collection_id ftnasantrs
language unknown
topic Meteorology and Climatology
spellingShingle Meteorology and Climatology
MacLachlan, Craig
Kim, Hye-Mi
Lee, Myong-In
Arribas, Alberto
Schubert, Siegfried D.
Kang, Hyun-Suk
Im, Jungho
Kang, Daehyun
Kim, Daehyun
Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems
topic_facet Meteorology and Climatology
description This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to assess the skill of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the AO. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper level wind, and precipitation associated with the different phases of the AO. The results demonstrate that most EPSs improve upon persistence skill scores for lead times up to 2 months in boreal winter, suggesting some potential for skillful prediction of the AO and its associated climate anomalies at seasonal time scales. It is also found that the skill of AO forecasts during the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that of the earlier period (1983-1996).
format Other/Unknown Material
author MacLachlan, Craig
Kim, Hye-Mi
Lee, Myong-In
Arribas, Alberto
Schubert, Siegfried D.
Kang, Hyun-Suk
Im, Jungho
Kang, Daehyun
Kim, Daehyun
author_facet MacLachlan, Craig
Kim, Hye-Mi
Lee, Myong-In
Arribas, Alberto
Schubert, Siegfried D.
Kang, Hyun-Suk
Im, Jungho
Kang, Daehyun
Kim, Daehyun
author_sort MacLachlan, Craig
title Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems
title_short Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems
title_full Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems
title_fullStr Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems
title_sort prediction of the arctic oscillation in boreal winter by dynamical seasonal forecasting systems
publishDate 2014
url http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017691
op_coverage Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available
geographic Arctic
geographic_facet Arctic
genre Arctic
genre_facet Arctic
op_source CASI
op_relation Document ID: 20140017691
http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017691
op_rights Copyright, Distribution as joint owner in the copyright
_version_ 1766326818301804544

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