Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5
We present a description of the theoretical framework and best practice for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcas...
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ftnasantrs:oai:casi.ntrs.nasa.gov:20140011351 2023-05-15T18:18:35+02:00 Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5 Guilyardi, E. Konecky, B. Cook, B. I. Annan, J D. Bartlein, P. J. Thompson, D. LeGrande, A. N. Mann, M. E. Tremblay, L.-B. Kageyama, M. Hargreaves, J. C. Risi, C. Schmidt, G. A. Yiou, P. Timmermann, A. Lovejoy, S. Harrison, S. P. Masson-Delmotte, V. Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available February 11, 2013 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140011351 unknown Document ID: 20140011351 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140011351 Copyright, Distribution as joint owner in the copyright CASI Meteorology and Climatology GSFC-E-DAA-TN8476 Climate of the Past Discussions; 9; 775-835 2013 ftnasantrs 2019-07-21T00:26:12Z We present a description of the theoretical framework and best practice for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (8501850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitationtemperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs. Other/Unknown Material Sea ice NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
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Open Polar |
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
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ftnasantrs |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Meteorology and Climatology |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Climatology Guilyardi, E. Konecky, B. Cook, B. I. Annan, J D. Bartlein, P. J. Thompson, D. LeGrande, A. N. Mann, M. E. Tremblay, L.-B. Kageyama, M. Hargreaves, J. C. Risi, C. Schmidt, G. A. Yiou, P. Timmermann, A. Lovejoy, S. Harrison, S. P. Masson-Delmotte, V. Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5 |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Climatology |
description |
We present a description of the theoretical framework and best practice for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (8501850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitationtemperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Guilyardi, E. Konecky, B. Cook, B. I. Annan, J D. Bartlein, P. J. Thompson, D. LeGrande, A. N. Mann, M. E. Tremblay, L.-B. Kageyama, M. Hargreaves, J. C. Risi, C. Schmidt, G. A. Yiou, P. Timmermann, A. Lovejoy, S. Harrison, S. P. Masson-Delmotte, V. |
author_facet |
Guilyardi, E. Konecky, B. Cook, B. I. Annan, J D. Bartlein, P. J. Thompson, D. LeGrande, A. N. Mann, M. E. Tremblay, L.-B. Kageyama, M. Hargreaves, J. C. Risi, C. Schmidt, G. A. Yiou, P. Timmermann, A. Lovejoy, S. Harrison, S. P. Masson-Delmotte, V. |
author_sort |
Guilyardi, E. |
title |
Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5 |
title_short |
Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5 |
title_full |
Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5 |
title_fullStr |
Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5 |
title_sort |
using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in cmip5 |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140011351 |
op_coverage |
Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
CASI |
op_relation |
Document ID: 20140011351 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140011351 |
op_rights |
Copyright, Distribution as joint owner in the copyright |
_version_ |
1766195206708789248 |