An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009
An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the comb...
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ftnasantrs:oai:casi.ntrs.nasa.gov:20090015387 2023-05-15T17:29:00+02:00 An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009 Wilson, Robert M. Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available March 2009 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20090015387 unknown Document ID: 20090015387 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20090015387 No Copyright CASI Meteorology and Climatology NASA/TP-2009-215741 M-1253 2009 ftnasantrs 2019-07-21T06:38:53Z An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the combined high-activity intervals (1950-1965 and 1995-2008) give the central 50% intervals to be 9-14, 5-8, and 2-4, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a 23.4% chance of exceeding 14 tropical cyclones, a 28% chance of exceeding 8 hurricanes, and a 31.9% chance of exceeding 4 major hurricanes. Based strictly on the statistics of the current high-activity interval (1995-2008), the central 50% intervals for the numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12-18, 6-10, and 3-5, respectively, with only a 5% chance of exceeding 23, 13, or 7 storms, respectively. Also examined are the first differences in 10-yr moving averages and the effects of global warming and decadal-length oscillations on the frequencies of occurrence for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In particular, temperature now appears to be the principal driver of increased activity and storm strength during the current high-activity interval, with near-record values possible during the 2009 season. Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
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Open Polar |
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) |
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ftnasantrs |
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topic |
Meteorology and Climatology |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Climatology Wilson, Robert M. An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009 |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Climatology |
description |
An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the combined high-activity intervals (1950-1965 and 1995-2008) give the central 50% intervals to be 9-14, 5-8, and 2-4, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a 23.4% chance of exceeding 14 tropical cyclones, a 28% chance of exceeding 8 hurricanes, and a 31.9% chance of exceeding 4 major hurricanes. Based strictly on the statistics of the current high-activity interval (1995-2008), the central 50% intervals for the numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12-18, 6-10, and 3-5, respectively, with only a 5% chance of exceeding 23, 13, or 7 storms, respectively. Also examined are the first differences in 10-yr moving averages and the effects of global warming and decadal-length oscillations on the frequencies of occurrence for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In particular, temperature now appears to be the principal driver of increased activity and storm strength during the current high-activity interval, with near-record values possible during the 2009 season. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Wilson, Robert M. |
author_facet |
Wilson, Robert M. |
author_sort |
Wilson, Robert M. |
title |
An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009 |
title_short |
An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009 |
title_full |
An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009 |
title_fullStr |
An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009 |
title_full_unstemmed |
An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009 |
title_sort |
extended forecast of the frequencies of north atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity for 2009 |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20090015387 |
op_coverage |
Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
CASI |
op_relation |
Document ID: 20090015387 http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20090015387 |
op_rights |
No Copyright |
_version_ |
1766122312839462912 |