What Would Have Happened to the Ozone Layer if Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been Regulated?

• Main Authors: Oman, L. D., Krotkov, N. A., Jackman, C. H., Newman, Paul A., Frith, S. M., Nash, E. R., Stolarski, R. S., Pawson, S., Hurwitz, M. M., Fleming, E. L., Douglass, A. R., Kawa, S. R., Velders, G. J. M., Nielsen, J. E.
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2008
• Subjects: Meteorology and Climatology; Antarctic; Molina; Rowland; The Antarctic; Antarc*
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20080045511

Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed by Molina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, the sci entific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozone depl eting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratory m easurements, atmospheric observations, and modeling research. This science research led to the implementation of international agreements t hat largely stopped the production of ODSs. In this study we use a fu lly-coupled radiation-chemical-dynamical model to simulate a future world where ODSs were never regulated and ODS production grew at an ann ual rate of 3%. In this "world avoided" simulation 1.7 % of the globa lly-average column ozone is destroyed by 2020, and 67% is destroyed b y 2065 in comparison to 1980. Large ozone depletions in the polar region become year-round rather than just seasonal as is currently observ ed in the Antarctic ozone hole. Very large temperature decreases are observed in response to circulation changes and decreased shortwave radiation absorption by ozone. Ozone levels in the tropical lower strat osphere remain constant until about 2053 and then collapse to near ze ro by 2058 as a result of heterogeneous chemical processes (as curren tly observed in the Antarctic ozone hole). The tropical cooling that triggers the ozone collapse is caused by an increase of the tropical upwelling. In response to ozone changes, ultraviolet radiation increa ses, more than doubling the erythemal radiation in the northern summer midlatitudes by 2060.