Bayesian Network modeling and expert elicitation for probabilistic eruption forecasting : pilot study for Whakaari/White Island, New Zealand

• Published in: Frontiers in Earth Science
• Main Authors: Christophersen, Annemarie, Deligne, Natalia I., Hanea, Anca M., Chardot, Lauriane, Fournier, Nicolas, Aspinall, Willy P.
• Other Authors: Earth Observatory of Singapore
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2018
• Subjects: Bayesian Networks; Eruption Forecasting; Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes; New Zealand; White Island
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10220/50442; https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00211

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that provide a robust and flexible framework for understanding complex systems. Limited case studies have demonstrated the potential of BNs in modeling multiple data streams for eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard assessment. Neverthele...