Genetic and demographic data reveal dispersal processes: Informed, massive and infrequent emigration events in Emperor penguins

• Main Authors: Garnier, Jimmy, Clucas, Gemma, Younger, Jane, Sen, Bilgecan, Barbraud, Christophe, Larue, Michelle, Fraser, Alexander D., Labrousse, Sara, Jenouvrier, Stéphanie
• Other Authors: Laboratoire de Mathématiques (LAMA), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, Cornell University New York, Milner Centre for Evolution, University of Bath Bath, Stony Brook University SUNY (SBU), State University of New York (SUNY), Center for Materials Design, Institute for Advanced Computational Science, State University of New York (SUNY)-State University of New York (SUNY), Biology Department (WHOI), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC), La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), School of Earth and Environment, University of Canterburry, Institute for Marine and Antartic Studies, University of Tasmania, Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2022
• Subjects: dispersal distance; dispersal kernel; dispersal range; emigration rates; [MATH.MATH-AP]Mathematics [math]/Analysis of PDEs [math.AP]; [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology; environment; [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]; Emperor penguins
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03822288; https://hal.science/hal-03822288/document; https://hal.science/hal-03822288/file/EP_Dispersion_PNAS.pdf

Dispersal is an ubiquitous phenomenon which affects the population dynamics and evolution of natural populations, hence it is a fundamental process in driving biodiversity responses to rapid global change. However, dispersal rates and dispersal range are difficult to measure in most species, and remain unknown for many.In addition, informed behaviors, whereby individuals leave their natal area and select a breeding habitat non-randomly, may play an important role in species' responses to global change, and are even more difficult to comprehend. Here, we develop a new mathematical function combining demographic and genetic data to determine the dispersal distance, emigration rates and dispersal behaviors (random or informed emigration and establishment). We apply our approach to the Emperor penguin, a species threatened by climate change.We found that Emperor penguins have a short distance of dispersal compared to their capacity to cover large distances during migration. On average, emigration rates are small and Emperor penguins leave their colonies when the habitat becomes unsuitable (informed emigration). However, for some regions, massive emigration events can occur. Specifically, emigration is more likely to occur for habitat with low food availability that can not sustain large populations. Our model opens the doors to estimate both the mean dispersal distance, emigration rates, and dispersal behaviours across the tree of life to transform our understanding of dispersal processes and their consequences for populations and ecosystems.