Diagnosing CO 2 emission-induced feedbacks between the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and the climate system: A multiple Earth System Model analysis using a water mass tracking approach
International audience Anthropogenic CO$_2$ emission-induced feedbacks between the carbon cycle and the climate system perturb the efficiency of atmospheric CO$_2$ uptake by land and ocean carbon reservoirs. The Southern Ocean is a region where these feedbacks can be largest and differ most among Ea...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Main Authors: | , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2021
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03607283 https://hal.science/hal-03607283/document https://hal.science/hal-03607283/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Diagnosing%20CO2-Emission-Induced%20Feedbacks%20between%20the%20Southern%20Ocean%20Carbon%20Cycle%20and%20the%20Climate%20System%20A%20Multiple%20Earth%20System%20Model%20Analysis%20Using.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0889.1 |
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Open Polar |
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Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle (MNHM): HAL |
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ftmuseumnhn |
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English |
topic |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Roy, Tilla Sallée, Jean-Baptiste Bopp, Laurent Metzl, Nicolas Diagnosing CO 2 emission-induced feedbacks between the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and the climate system: A multiple Earth System Model analysis using a water mass tracking approach |
topic_facet |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Anthropogenic CO$_2$ emission-induced feedbacks between the carbon cycle and the climate system perturb the efficiency of atmospheric CO$_2$ uptake by land and ocean carbon reservoirs. The Southern Ocean is a region where these feedbacks can be largest and differ most among Earth System Model projections of 21st century climate change. To improve our mechanistic understanding of these feedbacks, we develop an automated procedure that tracks changes in the positions of Southern Ocean water masses and their carbon uptake. In an idealised ensemble of climate change projections, we diagnose two carbon–concentration feedbacks driven by atmospheric CO$_2$ (due to increasing air-sea CO$_2$ partial pressure difference, dpCO$_2$ , and reducing carbonate buffering capacity) and two carbon–climate feedbacks driven by climate change (due to changes in the water mass surface outcrop areas and local climate impacts). Collectively these feedbacks increase the CO$_2$ uptake by the Southern Ocean and account for one-fifth of the global uptake of CO$_2$ emissions. The increase in CO$_2$ uptake is primarily dpCO$_2$ -driven, with Antarctic intermediate waters making the largest contribution; the remaining three feedbacks partially offset this increase (by ~25%), with maximum reductions in Subantarctic mode waters. The process dominating the decrease in CO$_2$ uptake is water mass-dependent: reduction in carbonate buffering capacity in Subtropical and Subantarctic mode waters, local climate impacts in Antarctic intermediate waters, and reduction in outcrop areas in circumpolar deep waters and Antarctic bottom waters. Intermodel variability in the feedbacks is predominately dpCO$_2$ –driven and should be a focus of efforts to constrain projection uncertainty. |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Ecoceana SA Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations (CYBIOM) European Project: 264879,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2010,CARBOCHANGE(2011) European Project: 821001,SO-CHIC(2019) European Project: 820989,H2020-EU.3.5.1.,COMFORT(2019) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Roy, Tilla Sallée, Jean-Baptiste Bopp, Laurent Metzl, Nicolas |
author_facet |
Roy, Tilla Sallée, Jean-Baptiste Bopp, Laurent Metzl, Nicolas |
author_sort |
Roy, Tilla |
title |
Diagnosing CO 2 emission-induced feedbacks between the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and the climate system: A multiple Earth System Model analysis using a water mass tracking approach |
title_short |
Diagnosing CO 2 emission-induced feedbacks between the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and the climate system: A multiple Earth System Model analysis using a water mass tracking approach |
title_full |
Diagnosing CO 2 emission-induced feedbacks between the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and the climate system: A multiple Earth System Model analysis using a water mass tracking approach |
title_fullStr |
Diagnosing CO 2 emission-induced feedbacks between the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and the climate system: A multiple Earth System Model analysis using a water mass tracking approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Diagnosing CO 2 emission-induced feedbacks between the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and the climate system: A multiple Earth System Model analysis using a water mass tracking approach |
title_sort |
diagnosing co 2 emission-induced feedbacks between the southern ocean carbon cycle and the climate system: a multiple earth system model analysis using a water mass tracking approach |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03607283 https://hal.science/hal-03607283/document https://hal.science/hal-03607283/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Diagnosing%20CO2-Emission-Induced%20Feedbacks%20between%20the%20Southern%20Ocean%20Carbon%20Cycle%20and%20the%20Climate%20System%20A%20Multiple%20Earth%20System%20Model%20Analysis%20Using.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0889.1 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-03607283 Journal of Climate, 2021, 34 (22), pp.9071-9082. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0889.1⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0889.1 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/264879/EU/Changes in carbon uptake and emissions by oceans in a changing climate/CARBOCHANGE info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//821001/EU/Southern Ocean Carbon and Heat Impact on Climate/SO-CHIC info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//820989/EU/Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points/COMFORT hal-03607283 https://hal.science/hal-03607283 https://hal.science/hal-03607283/document https://hal.science/hal-03607283/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Diagnosing%20CO2-Emission-Induced%20Feedbacks%20between%20the%20Southern%20Ocean%20Carbon%20Cycle%20and%20the%20Climate%20System%20A%20Multiple%20Earth%20System%20Model%20Analysis%20Using.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0889.1 WOS: 000752646200016 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0889.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
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ftmuseumnhn:oai:HAL:hal-03607283v1 2024-06-09T07:39:54+00:00 Diagnosing CO 2 emission-induced feedbacks between the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and the climate system: A multiple Earth System Model analysis using a water mass tracking approach Roy, Tilla Sallée, Jean-Baptiste Bopp, Laurent Metzl, Nicolas Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Ecoceana SA Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations (CYBIOM) European Project: 264879,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2010,CARBOCHANGE(2011) European Project: 821001,SO-CHIC(2019) European Project: 820989,H2020-EU.3.5.1.,COMFORT(2019) 2021-09-28 https://hal.science/hal-03607283 https://hal.science/hal-03607283/document https://hal.science/hal-03607283/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Diagnosing%20CO2-Emission-Induced%20Feedbacks%20between%20the%20Southern%20Ocean%20Carbon%20Cycle%20and%20the%20Climate%20System%20A%20Multiple%20Earth%20System%20Model%20Analysis%20Using.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0889.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0889.1 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/264879/EU/Changes in carbon uptake and emissions by oceans in a changing climate/CARBOCHANGE info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//821001/EU/Southern Ocean Carbon and Heat Impact on Climate/SO-CHIC info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//820989/EU/Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points/COMFORT hal-03607283 https://hal.science/hal-03607283 https://hal.science/hal-03607283/document https://hal.science/hal-03607283/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Diagnosing%20CO2-Emission-Induced%20Feedbacks%20between%20the%20Southern%20Ocean%20Carbon%20Cycle%20and%20the%20Climate%20System%20A%20Multiple%20Earth%20System%20Model%20Analysis%20Using.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0889.1 WOS: 000752646200016 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-03607283 Journal of Climate, 2021, 34 (22), pp.9071-9082. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0889.1⟩ [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftmuseumnhn https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0889.1 2024-05-16T10:12:54Z International audience Anthropogenic CO$_2$ emission-induced feedbacks between the carbon cycle and the climate system perturb the efficiency of atmospheric CO$_2$ uptake by land and ocean carbon reservoirs. The Southern Ocean is a region where these feedbacks can be largest and differ most among Earth System Model projections of 21st century climate change. To improve our mechanistic understanding of these feedbacks, we develop an automated procedure that tracks changes in the positions of Southern Ocean water masses and their carbon uptake. In an idealised ensemble of climate change projections, we diagnose two carbon–concentration feedbacks driven by atmospheric CO$_2$ (due to increasing air-sea CO$_2$ partial pressure difference, dpCO$_2$ , and reducing carbonate buffering capacity) and two carbon–climate feedbacks driven by climate change (due to changes in the water mass surface outcrop areas and local climate impacts). Collectively these feedbacks increase the CO$_2$ uptake by the Southern Ocean and account for one-fifth of the global uptake of CO$_2$ emissions. The increase in CO$_2$ uptake is primarily dpCO$_2$ -driven, with Antarctic intermediate waters making the largest contribution; the remaining three feedbacks partially offset this increase (by ~25%), with maximum reductions in Subantarctic mode waters. The process dominating the decrease in CO$_2$ uptake is water mass-dependent: reduction in carbonate buffering capacity in Subtropical and Subantarctic mode waters, local climate impacts in Antarctic intermediate waters, and reduction in outcrop areas in circumpolar deep waters and Antarctic bottom waters. Intermodel variability in the feedbacks is predominately dpCO$_2$ –driven and should be a focus of efforts to constrain projection uncertainty. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle (MNHM): HAL Antarctic Southern Ocean Journal of Climate 1 62 |