Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean

• Published in: Diversity and Distributions
• Main Authors: Reisinger, Ryan R., Corney, Stuart, Raymond, Ben, Lombard, Amanda, Bester, Marthán, Crawford, Robert, Davies, Delia, Bruyn, P., Dilley, Ben, Kirkman, Stephen, Makhado, Azwianewi, Ryan, Peter, Schoombie, Stefan, Stevens, Kim, Tosh, Cheryl, Wege, Mia, Whitehead, T. Otto, Sumner, Michael, Wotherspoon, Simon, Friedlaender, Ari, Cotté, Cédric, Hindell, Mark, Ropert‐coudert, Yan, Pistorius, Pierre
• Other Authors: University of Southampton, Institute for Marine Sciences California, USA, University of California Santa Cruz (UC Santa Cruz), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC), La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania Hobart, Australia (UTAS), Institute for Coastal Marine Research (CMR), Nelson Mandela University, Department of Zoology and Entomology Pretoria, University of Pretoria South Africa, Fisheries Research and Development, Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence - Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology South Africa, Nelson Mandela University Port Elizabeth, Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Agriculture Australia, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, 7050, Australia, Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Institute for Coastal and Marine Research and Department of Zoology South Africa
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2022
• Subjects: climate change; distribution; marine mammals; prediction; projection; seabirds; Southern Ocean; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]; Antarc*; Antarctic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03457309; https://hal.science/hal-03457309/document; https://hal.science/hal-03457309/file/ddi.13447.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13447

International audience Aim: Climate change will likely lead to a significant redistribution of biodiversity inmarine ecosystems. We examine the potential redistribution of a community of marinepredators by comparing current and future habitat distribution projections. Weexamine relative changes among species, indicative of potential future community-levelchanges and consider potential consequences of these changes for conservationand management.Location: Southern Indian Ocean.Methods: We used tracking data from 14 species (10 seabirds, 3 seals and 1 cetacean,totalling 538 tracks) to model the habitat selection of predators around thePrince Edward Islands. Using random forest classifiers, we modelled habitat selectionas a response to a static environmental covariate and nine dynamic environmental covariates obtained from eight IPCC-classclimate models. To project the potentialdistribution of the predators in 2071–2100,we used climate model outputs assumingtwo greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.Results: Analogous climates are projected to predominantly shift to the southeast andsouthwest. Species’ potential range shifts varied in direction and magnitude, but overallshifted slightly to the southwest. Despite the variable shifts among species, currentspecies co-occurrencepatterns and future projections were statistically similar.Our projections show that at least some important habitats will shift out of nationalwaters and marine protected areas by 2100, but important habitat area will increasein the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Area.Predicted areas of common use among predators decreased north of the islands andincreased to the south, suggesting that multiple predator species may use southerlyhabitats more intensively in the future. Consequently, Southern Ocean managementauthorities could implement conservation actions to partially offset these shifts.Main conclusions: Overall, we predict that marine predator biodiversity in the southernIndian Ocean will ...