The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability
International audience Decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic is largely related to ocean low frequency variability, whose sensitivity to initial conditions is not very well understood. Recently, three-dimensional oceanic temperature anomalies optimally perturbing the North Atlantic Me...
Published in: | Climate Dynamics |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2018
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-01874716 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4016-z |
id |
ftmuseumnhn:oai:HAL:hal-01874716v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle (MNHM): HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftmuseumnhn |
language |
English |
topic |
Initial condition uncertainties Linear optimal perturbations North Atlantic variability Atlantic meridional overturning circulation IPSL-CM5A Decadal climate predictability [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
spellingShingle |
Initial condition uncertainties Linear optimal perturbations North Atlantic variability Atlantic meridional overturning circulation IPSL-CM5A Decadal climate predictability [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] Germe, Agathe Sévellec, Florian Mignot, Juliette Fedorov, Alexey V. Nguyen, Sébastien Swingedouw, Didier The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability |
topic_facet |
Initial condition uncertainties Linear optimal perturbations North Atlantic variability Atlantic meridional overturning circulation IPSL-CM5A Decadal climate predictability [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
description |
International audience Decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic is largely related to ocean low frequency variability, whose sensitivity to initial conditions is not very well understood. Recently, three-dimensional oceanic temperature anomalies optimally perturbing the North Atlantic Mean Temperature (NAMT) have been computed via an optimization procedure using a linear adjoint to a realistic ocean general circulation model. The spatial pattern of the identified perturbations, localized in the North Atlantic, has the largest magnitude between 1000 and 4000 m depth. In the present study, the impacts of these perturbations on NAMT, on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and on climate in general are investigated in a global coupled model that uses the same ocean model as was used to compute the three-dimensional optimal perturbations. In the coupled model, these perturbations induce AMOC and NAMT anomalies peaking after 5 and 10 years, respectively, generally consistent with the ocean-only linear predictions. To further understand their impact, their magnitude was varied in a broad range. For initial perturbations with a magnitude comparable to the internal variability of the coupled model, the model response exhibits a strong signature in sea surface temperature and precipitation over North America and the Sahel region. The existence and impacts of these ocean perturbations have important implications for decadal prediction: they can be seen either as a source of predictability or uncertainty, depending on whether the current observing system can detect them or not. In fact, comparing the magnitude of the imposed perturbations with the uncertainty of available ocean observations such as Argo data or ocean state estimates suggests that only the largest perturbations used in this study could be detectable. This highlights the importance for decadal climate prediction of accurate ocean density initialisation in the North Atlantic at intermediate and greater depths. |
author2 |
Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) National Oceanography Centre Southampton (NOC) University of Southampton Ocean and Earth Science Southampton University of Southampton-National Oceanography Centre (NOC) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Yale University New Haven Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) French national programme LEFE/INSU (DECLIC) Natural and Environmental Research Council UK (DYNAMOC) NE/M005097/1 Natural and Environmental Research Council UK (SMURPHS) NE/N005767/1 French national programme LEFE/INSU US DOE Office of Science DE-SC0016538 NSF AGS-1613318 European Project: 308378,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2012-two-stage,SPECS(2012) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Germe, Agathe Sévellec, Florian Mignot, Juliette Fedorov, Alexey V. Nguyen, Sébastien Swingedouw, Didier |
author_facet |
Germe, Agathe Sévellec, Florian Mignot, Juliette Fedorov, Alexey V. Nguyen, Sébastien Swingedouw, Didier |
author_sort |
Germe, Agathe |
title |
The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability |
title_short |
The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability |
title_full |
The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability |
title_fullStr |
The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability |
title_sort |
impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the north atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01874716 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4016-z |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-01874716 Climate Dynamics, 2018, 51 (5-6), pp.2341 - 2357. ⟨10.1007/s00382-017-4016-z⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-017-4016-z info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308378/EU/Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of EuropeanClimate Services/SPECS hal-01874716 https://hal.science/hal-01874716 doi:10.1007/s00382-017-4016-z IRD: fdi:010073786 WOS: 000442433200042 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4016-z |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
51 |
container_issue |
5-6 |
container_start_page |
2341 |
op_container_end_page |
2357 |
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1799484402382667776 |
spelling |
ftmuseumnhn:oai:HAL:hal-01874716v1 2024-05-19T07:44:35+00:00 The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability Germe, Agathe Sévellec, Florian Mignot, Juliette Fedorov, Alexey V. Nguyen, Sébastien Swingedouw, Didier Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) National Oceanography Centre Southampton (NOC) University of Southampton Ocean and Earth Science Southampton University of Southampton-National Oceanography Centre (NOC) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Yale University New Haven Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) French national programme LEFE/INSU (DECLIC) Natural and Environmental Research Council UK (DYNAMOC) NE/M005097/1 Natural and Environmental Research Council UK (SMURPHS) NE/N005767/1 French national programme LEFE/INSU US DOE Office of Science DE-SC0016538 NSF AGS-1613318 European Project: 308378,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2012-two-stage,SPECS(2012) 2018-09 https://hal.science/hal-01874716 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4016-z en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-017-4016-z info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308378/EU/Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of EuropeanClimate Services/SPECS hal-01874716 https://hal.science/hal-01874716 doi:10.1007/s00382-017-4016-z IRD: fdi:010073786 WOS: 000442433200042 ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-01874716 Climate Dynamics, 2018, 51 (5-6), pp.2341 - 2357. ⟨10.1007/s00382-017-4016-z⟩ Initial condition uncertainties Linear optimal perturbations North Atlantic variability Atlantic meridional overturning circulation IPSL-CM5A Decadal climate predictability [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftmuseumnhn https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4016-z 2024-04-25T00:52:27Z International audience Decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic is largely related to ocean low frequency variability, whose sensitivity to initial conditions is not very well understood. Recently, three-dimensional oceanic temperature anomalies optimally perturbing the North Atlantic Mean Temperature (NAMT) have been computed via an optimization procedure using a linear adjoint to a realistic ocean general circulation model. The spatial pattern of the identified perturbations, localized in the North Atlantic, has the largest magnitude between 1000 and 4000 m depth. In the present study, the impacts of these perturbations on NAMT, on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and on climate in general are investigated in a global coupled model that uses the same ocean model as was used to compute the three-dimensional optimal perturbations. In the coupled model, these perturbations induce AMOC and NAMT anomalies peaking after 5 and 10 years, respectively, generally consistent with the ocean-only linear predictions. To further understand their impact, their magnitude was varied in a broad range. For initial perturbations with a magnitude comparable to the internal variability of the coupled model, the model response exhibits a strong signature in sea surface temperature and precipitation over North America and the Sahel region. The existence and impacts of these ocean perturbations have important implications for decadal prediction: they can be seen either as a source of predictability or uncertainty, depending on whether the current observing system can detect them or not. In fact, comparing the magnitude of the imposed perturbations with the uncertainty of available ocean observations such as Argo data or ocean state estimates suggests that only the largest perturbations used in this study could be detectable. This highlights the importance for decadal climate prediction of accurate ocean density initialisation in the North Atlantic at intermediate and greater depths. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle (MNHM): HAL Climate Dynamics 51 5-6 2341 2357 |