Validation of presence‐only models for conservation planning and the application to whales in a multiple‐use marine park

Identification of species’ Biologically Important Areas (BIAs) is fundamental to conservation planning and species distribution models (SDMs) are a powerful tool commonly used to do this. Presence‐only data are increasingly being used to develop SDMs to aid the conservation decision‐making process....

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Main Authors: Smith, J.N., Kelly, N., Renner, I.W.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Ecological Society of America 2021
Subjects:
Online Access:https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/57915/
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spelling ftmurdochuniv:oai:researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au:57915 2023-05-15T16:36:11+02:00 Validation of presence‐only models for conservation planning and the application to whales in a multiple‐use marine park Smith, J.N. Kelly, N. Renner, I.W. 2021 https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/57915/ eng eng Ecological Society of America https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/57915/ full_text_status:public © 2020 The Authors Smith, J.N. <https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/view/author/Smith, Joshua.html>orcid:0000-0001-9912-422X , Kelly, N. and Renner, I.W. (2021) Validation of presence‐only models for conservation planning and the application to whales in a multiple‐use marine park. Ecological Applications, 31 (1). e02214. Journal Article 2021 ftmurdochuniv 2021-03-22T23:26:56Z Identification of species’ Biologically Important Areas (BIAs) is fundamental to conservation planning and species distribution models (SDMs) are a powerful tool commonly used to do this. Presence‐only data are increasingly being used to develop SDMs to aid the conservation decision‐making process. The application of presence‐only SDMs for marine species’ is particularly attractive due to often logistical and economic costs of obtaining systematic species’ distribution data. However, robust model validation is important for conservation management applications that require accurate and reliable species’ occurrence data (e.g., spatially explicit risk assessments). This is commonly done using a random subset of the data and less commonly with fully independent test data. Here, we apply a spatial block cross‐validation (CV) approach to validate a MaxEnt presence‐only model using independent presence/absence survey data for a highly mobile, marine species (humpback whale, Megaptera novaengliae) in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). A MaxEnt model was developed using opportunistic whale sightings (2003–2007) and then used to identify areas differing in habitat suitability (low, medium, high) to conduct a systematic, line‐transect, aerial survey (2012) and derive a density surface model. A spatial block CV buffering strategy was used to validate the MaxEnt model, using the opportunistic sightings as training data and independent aerial survey sightings data as test data. Moderate performance measures indicate MaxEnt was reliable in identifying the distribution patterns of a mobile whale species on their breeding ground, indicated by areas of high density aligned to areas of high habitat suitability. Furthermore, we demonstrate that MaxEnt models can be useful and cost‐effective for designing a sampling scheme to undertake systematic surveys that significantly reduces sampling effort. In this study, higher quality information on whale reproductive class (calf vs. non‐calf groups) was obtained that the presence‐only data lacked, while sampling only 18% of the GBR World Heritage Area. The validation approach using fully independent data provides greater confidence in the MaxEnt model, which indicates significant overlap with the main breeding ground of humpback whales and the inner shipping route. This is important when evaluating presence‐only models within certain conservation management applications, such as spatial risk assessments. Article in Journal/Newspaper Humpback Whale Murdoch University: Murdoch Research Repository
institution Open Polar
collection Murdoch University: Murdoch Research Repository
op_collection_id ftmurdochuniv
language English
description Identification of species’ Biologically Important Areas (BIAs) is fundamental to conservation planning and species distribution models (SDMs) are a powerful tool commonly used to do this. Presence‐only data are increasingly being used to develop SDMs to aid the conservation decision‐making process. The application of presence‐only SDMs for marine species’ is particularly attractive due to often logistical and economic costs of obtaining systematic species’ distribution data. However, robust model validation is important for conservation management applications that require accurate and reliable species’ occurrence data (e.g., spatially explicit risk assessments). This is commonly done using a random subset of the data and less commonly with fully independent test data. Here, we apply a spatial block cross‐validation (CV) approach to validate a MaxEnt presence‐only model using independent presence/absence survey data for a highly mobile, marine species (humpback whale, Megaptera novaengliae) in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). A MaxEnt model was developed using opportunistic whale sightings (2003–2007) and then used to identify areas differing in habitat suitability (low, medium, high) to conduct a systematic, line‐transect, aerial survey (2012) and derive a density surface model. A spatial block CV buffering strategy was used to validate the MaxEnt model, using the opportunistic sightings as training data and independent aerial survey sightings data as test data. Moderate performance measures indicate MaxEnt was reliable in identifying the distribution patterns of a mobile whale species on their breeding ground, indicated by areas of high density aligned to areas of high habitat suitability. Furthermore, we demonstrate that MaxEnt models can be useful and cost‐effective for designing a sampling scheme to undertake systematic surveys that significantly reduces sampling effort. In this study, higher quality information on whale reproductive class (calf vs. non‐calf groups) was obtained that the presence‐only data lacked, while sampling only 18% of the GBR World Heritage Area. The validation approach using fully independent data provides greater confidence in the MaxEnt model, which indicates significant overlap with the main breeding ground of humpback whales and the inner shipping route. This is important when evaluating presence‐only models within certain conservation management applications, such as spatial risk assessments.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Smith, J.N.
Kelly, N.
Renner, I.W.
spellingShingle Smith, J.N.
Kelly, N.
Renner, I.W.
Validation of presence‐only models for conservation planning and the application to whales in a multiple‐use marine park
author_facet Smith, J.N.
Kelly, N.
Renner, I.W.
author_sort Smith, J.N.
title Validation of presence‐only models for conservation planning and the application to whales in a multiple‐use marine park
title_short Validation of presence‐only models for conservation planning and the application to whales in a multiple‐use marine park
title_full Validation of presence‐only models for conservation planning and the application to whales in a multiple‐use marine park
title_fullStr Validation of presence‐only models for conservation planning and the application to whales in a multiple‐use marine park
title_full_unstemmed Validation of presence‐only models for conservation planning and the application to whales in a multiple‐use marine park
title_sort validation of presence‐only models for conservation planning and the application to whales in a multiple‐use marine park
publisher Ecological Society of America
publishDate 2021
url https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/57915/
genre Humpback Whale
genre_facet Humpback Whale
op_source Smith, J.N. <https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/view/author/Smith, Joshua.html>orcid:0000-0001-9912-422X , Kelly, N. and Renner, I.W. (2021) Validation of presence‐only models for conservation planning and the application to whales in a multiple‐use marine park. Ecological Applications, 31 (1). e02214.
op_relation https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/57915/
full_text_status:public
op_rights © 2020 The Authors
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