Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit
The extinction of polar bears by the end of the 21st century has been predicted and calls have been made to list them as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The decision on whether or not to list rests upon forecasts of what will happen to the bears over the 21st Century. Sci...
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ftmpra:oai:mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de:6317 2024-09-15T18:35:39+00:00 Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit Armstrong, J. Scott Green, Kesten C. Soon, Willie 2007-12-15 application/pdf https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6317/ https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6317/1/MPRA_paper_6317.pdf en eng https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6317/1/MPRA_paper_6317.pdf Armstrong, J. Scott and Green, Kesten C. and Soon, Willie (2007): Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit. C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods Simulation Methods H0 - General C5 - Econometric Modeling C0 - General H23 - Externalities Redistributive Effects Environmental Taxes and Subsidies C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics MPRA Paper NonPeerReviewed 2007 ftmpra 2024-07-31T03:25:14Z The extinction of polar bears by the end of the 21st century has been predicted and calls have been made to list them as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The decision on whether or not to list rests upon forecasts of what will happen to the bears over the 21st Century. Scientific research on forecasting, conducted since the 1930s, has led to an extensive set of principles—evidence-based procedures—that describe which methods are appropriate under given conditions. The principles of forecasting have been published and are easily available. We assessed polar bear population forecasts in light of these scientific principles. Much research has been published on forecasting polar bear populations. Using an Internet search, we located roughly 1,000 such papers. None of them made reference to the scientific literature on forecasting. We examined references in the nine unpublished government reports that were prepared “…to Support U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Polar Bear Listing Decision.” The papers did not include references to works on scientific forecasting methodology. Of the nine papers written to support the listing, we judged two to be the most relevant to the decision: Amstrup, Marcot and Douglas et al. (2007), which we refer to as AMD, and Hunter et al. (2007), which we refer to as H6 to represent the six authors. AMD’s forecasts were the product of a complex causal chain. For the first link in the chain, AMD assumed that General Circulation Models (GCMs) are valid. However, the GCM models are not valid as a forecasting method and are not reliable for forecasting at a regional level as being considered by AMD and H6, thus breaking the chain. Nevertheless, we audited their conditional forecasts of what would happen to the polar bear population assuming that the extent of summer sea ice will decrease substantially in the coming decades. AMD could not be rated against 26 relevant principles because the paper did not contain enough information. In all, AMD violated 73 of the 90 ... Report Sea ice Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA - Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA - Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich) |
op_collection_id |
ftmpra |
language |
English |
topic |
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods Simulation Methods H0 - General C5 - Econometric Modeling C0 - General H23 - Externalities Redistributive Effects Environmental Taxes and Subsidies C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics |
spellingShingle |
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods Simulation Methods H0 - General C5 - Econometric Modeling C0 - General H23 - Externalities Redistributive Effects Environmental Taxes and Subsidies C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics Armstrong, J. Scott Green, Kesten C. Soon, Willie Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit |
topic_facet |
C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods Simulation Methods H0 - General C5 - Econometric Modeling C0 - General H23 - Externalities Redistributive Effects Environmental Taxes and Subsidies C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics |
description |
The extinction of polar bears by the end of the 21st century has been predicted and calls have been made to list them as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The decision on whether or not to list rests upon forecasts of what will happen to the bears over the 21st Century. Scientific research on forecasting, conducted since the 1930s, has led to an extensive set of principles—evidence-based procedures—that describe which methods are appropriate under given conditions. The principles of forecasting have been published and are easily available. We assessed polar bear population forecasts in light of these scientific principles. Much research has been published on forecasting polar bear populations. Using an Internet search, we located roughly 1,000 such papers. None of them made reference to the scientific literature on forecasting. We examined references in the nine unpublished government reports that were prepared “…to Support U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Polar Bear Listing Decision.” The papers did not include references to works on scientific forecasting methodology. Of the nine papers written to support the listing, we judged two to be the most relevant to the decision: Amstrup, Marcot and Douglas et al. (2007), which we refer to as AMD, and Hunter et al. (2007), which we refer to as H6 to represent the six authors. AMD’s forecasts were the product of a complex causal chain. For the first link in the chain, AMD assumed that General Circulation Models (GCMs) are valid. However, the GCM models are not valid as a forecasting method and are not reliable for forecasting at a regional level as being considered by AMD and H6, thus breaking the chain. Nevertheless, we audited their conditional forecasts of what would happen to the polar bear population assuming that the extent of summer sea ice will decrease substantially in the coming decades. AMD could not be rated against 26 relevant principles because the paper did not contain enough information. In all, AMD violated 73 of the 90 ... |
format |
Report |
author |
Armstrong, J. Scott Green, Kesten C. Soon, Willie |
author_facet |
Armstrong, J. Scott Green, Kesten C. Soon, Willie |
author_sort |
Armstrong, J. Scott |
title |
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit |
title_short |
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit |
title_full |
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit |
title_fullStr |
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit |
title_full_unstemmed |
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit |
title_sort |
polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6317/ https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6317/1/MPRA_paper_6317.pdf |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6317/1/MPRA_paper_6317.pdf Armstrong, J. Scott and Green, Kesten C. and Soon, Willie (2007): Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit. |
_version_ |
1810478852833542144 |