Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model
This paper presents a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model combines use of conventional cost–benefit analysis to produce aggregated single point estimates, with quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to produce inter...
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2009
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ftmonashits:oai:www.worldtransitresearch.info:research-1110 2024-09-15T18:09:29+00:00 Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model Salling, Kim Bang Bannister, David 2009-01-01T08:00:00Z https://www.worldtransitresearch.info/research/3423 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2009.08.001 unknown World Transit Research https://www.worldtransitresearch.info/research/3423 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2009.08.001 Permission to publish abstract given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them. World Transit Research decision support system cost-benefit analysis transport project appraisal risk analysis optimism bias economics - appraisal/evaluation text 2009 ftmonashits https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2009.08.001 2024-08-20T03:30:09Z This paper presents a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model combines use of conventional cost–benefit analysis to produce aggregated single point estimates, with quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to produce interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The paper investigates these two impacts in terms of the Optimism Bias principle which is used to take account of the underestimation of construction costs and the overestimation of travel time savings. The CBA-DK methodological approach has been used to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. The proposed assessment model makes use of both deterministic and stochastic based information. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action, while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework is illustrated by the use of a case study appraising airport and runway alternatives in the capital of Greenland – Nuuk. The case study has been conducted in cooperation with the Home Rule Authorities of Greenland. Text Greenland Nuuk Monash University, Institute of Transport Studies: World Transit Research (WTR) Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 43 9-10 800 813 |
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Monash University, Institute of Transport Studies: World Transit Research (WTR) |
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ftmonashits |
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topic |
decision support system cost-benefit analysis transport project appraisal risk analysis optimism bias economics - appraisal/evaluation |
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decision support system cost-benefit analysis transport project appraisal risk analysis optimism bias economics - appraisal/evaluation Salling, Kim Bang Bannister, David Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model |
topic_facet |
decision support system cost-benefit analysis transport project appraisal risk analysis optimism bias economics - appraisal/evaluation |
description |
This paper presents a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model combines use of conventional cost–benefit analysis to produce aggregated single point estimates, with quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to produce interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The paper investigates these two impacts in terms of the Optimism Bias principle which is used to take account of the underestimation of construction costs and the overestimation of travel time savings. The CBA-DK methodological approach has been used to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. The proposed assessment model makes use of both deterministic and stochastic based information. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action, while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework is illustrated by the use of a case study appraising airport and runway alternatives in the capital of Greenland – Nuuk. The case study has been conducted in cooperation with the Home Rule Authorities of Greenland. |
format |
Text |
author |
Salling, Kim Bang Bannister, David |
author_facet |
Salling, Kim Bang Bannister, David |
author_sort |
Salling, Kim Bang |
title |
Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model |
title_short |
Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model |
title_full |
Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model |
title_sort |
assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: the cba-dk model |
publisher |
World Transit Research |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://www.worldtransitresearch.info/research/3423 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2009.08.001 |
genre |
Greenland Nuuk |
genre_facet |
Greenland Nuuk |
op_source |
World Transit Research |
op_relation |
https://www.worldtransitresearch.info/research/3423 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2009.08.001 |
op_rights |
Permission to publish abstract given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2009.08.001 |
container_title |
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice |
container_volume |
43 |
container_issue |
9-10 |
container_start_page |
800 |
op_container_end_page |
813 |
_version_ |
1810447058480398336 |