Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium
The observed historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is relatively short and is subject to potential biases owing to a lack of observation platforms such as aircraft reconnaissance and satellite imagery in earlier decades. Therefore, studies of long-term variability in TC activit...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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ftmit:oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/97937 2023-06-11T04:14:31+02:00 Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium Kozar, Michael E. Mann, Michael E. Evans, Jenni L. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Emanuel, Kerry Andrew 2013-11 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97937 en_US eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013jd020380 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 2169897X 2169-8996 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97937 Kozar, Michael E., Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, and Jenni L. Evans. “Long-Term Variations of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from a Coupled Model Simulation of the Last Millennium.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, no. 24 (December 17, 2013): 13,383–13,392. © 2013 American Geophysical Union orcid:0000-0002-2066-2082 Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. MIT web domain Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2013 ftmit https://doi.org/10.1002/2013jd020380 2023-05-29T08:19:58Z The observed historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is relatively short and is subject to potential biases owing to a lack of observation platforms such as aircraft reconnaissance and satellite imagery in earlier decades. Therefore, studies of long-term variability in TC activity are hindered by the limitations and uncertainty within the historical data. An alternative approach is to study long-term Atlantic TC variability within the framework of a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model simulation. We have taken such an approach using a simulation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate System Model 1.4 forced with estimated natural and anthropogenic forcing over the past millennium. Atmospheric variables from the long-term model simulation are used to drive a recently developed downscaling relationship that simulates TC genesis and tracking over the course of the 1150 year model simulation. This downscaling process generates a long-term synthetic TC track data set, free of observational biases, though subject to limitations in the model climatology. The synthetic TC data are used to perform an analysis of long-term variability in Atlantic TCs, specifically focusing on TC landfalls, within the context of the coupled model simulation. Ultimately, analysis of various TC time series reveals that counts of landfalling TCs and even landfalling hurricanes track relatively well with the total basin-wide TC activity on multidecadal and longer timescales. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118 24 13,383 13,392 |
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DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
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ftmit |
language |
English |
description |
The observed historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is relatively short and is subject to potential biases owing to a lack of observation platforms such as aircraft reconnaissance and satellite imagery in earlier decades. Therefore, studies of long-term variability in TC activity are hindered by the limitations and uncertainty within the historical data. An alternative approach is to study long-term Atlantic TC variability within the framework of a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model simulation. We have taken such an approach using a simulation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate System Model 1.4 forced with estimated natural and anthropogenic forcing over the past millennium. Atmospheric variables from the long-term model simulation are used to drive a recently developed downscaling relationship that simulates TC genesis and tracking over the course of the 1150 year model simulation. This downscaling process generates a long-term synthetic TC track data set, free of observational biases, though subject to limitations in the model climatology. The synthetic TC data are used to perform an analysis of long-term variability in Atlantic TCs, specifically focusing on TC landfalls, within the context of the coupled model simulation. Ultimately, analysis of various TC time series reveals that counts of landfalling TCs and even landfalling hurricanes track relatively well with the total basin-wide TC activity on multidecadal and longer timescales. |
author2 |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kozar, Michael E. Mann, Michael E. Evans, Jenni L. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
spellingShingle |
Kozar, Michael E. Mann, Michael E. Evans, Jenni L. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium |
author_facet |
Kozar, Michael E. Mann, Michael E. Evans, Jenni L. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
author_sort |
Kozar, Michael E. |
title |
Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium |
title_short |
Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium |
title_full |
Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium |
title_fullStr |
Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium |
title_sort |
long-term variations of north atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97937 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
MIT web domain |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013jd020380 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 2169897X 2169-8996 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97937 Kozar, Michael E., Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, and Jenni L. Evans. “Long-Term Variations of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from a Coupled Model Simulation of the Last Millennium.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, no. 24 (December 17, 2013): 13,383–13,392. © 2013 American Geophysical Union orcid:0000-0002-2066-2082 |
op_rights |
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013jd020380 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
118 |
container_issue |
24 |
container_start_page |
13,383 |
op_container_end_page |
13,392 |
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1768392582983843840 |