The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing
In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Royal Society
2014
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97891 |
id |
ftmit:oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/97891 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftmit:oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/97891 2023-06-11T04:04:46+02:00 The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing Marshall, John C. Armour, Kyle C. Scott, Jeffery R. Kostov, Yavor Krasimirov Hausmann, Ute Ferreira, David Shepherd, Theodore G. Bitz, Cecilia M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Marshall, John C. Armour, Kyle C. Scott, Jeffery R. Kostov, Yavor Krasimirov Hausmann, Ute 2014-06 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97891 en_US eng Royal Society http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0040 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 1364-503X 1471-2962 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97891 Marshall, J., K. C. Armour, J. R. Scott, Y. Kostov, U. Hausmann, D. Ferreira, T. G. Shepherd, and C. M. Bitz. “The Ocean’s Role in Polar Climate Change: Asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic Responses to Greenhouse Gas and Ozone Forcing.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 372, no. 2019 (June 2, 2014): 20130040–20130040. orcid:0000-0002-8195-5938 orcid:0000-0001-9230-3591 orcid:0000-0003-4099-5789 Creative Commons Attribution http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ The Royal Society Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2014 ftmit https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0040 2023-05-29T08:28:05Z In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around ‘climate response functions’ (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to ‘step’ changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Arctic Climate change North Atlantic Sea ice Southern Ocean DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Arctic Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 372 2019 20130040 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftmit |
language |
English |
description |
In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around ‘climate response functions’ (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to ‘step’ changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate. |
author2 |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Marshall, John C. Armour, Kyle C. Scott, Jeffery R. Kostov, Yavor Krasimirov Hausmann, Ute |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marshall, John C. Armour, Kyle C. Scott, Jeffery R. Kostov, Yavor Krasimirov Hausmann, Ute Ferreira, David Shepherd, Theodore G. Bitz, Cecilia M. |
spellingShingle |
Marshall, John C. Armour, Kyle C. Scott, Jeffery R. Kostov, Yavor Krasimirov Hausmann, Ute Ferreira, David Shepherd, Theodore G. Bitz, Cecilia M. The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing |
author_facet |
Marshall, John C. Armour, Kyle C. Scott, Jeffery R. Kostov, Yavor Krasimirov Hausmann, Ute Ferreira, David Shepherd, Theodore G. Bitz, Cecilia M. |
author_sort |
Marshall, John C. |
title |
The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing |
title_short |
The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing |
title_full |
The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing |
title_fullStr |
The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing |
title_full_unstemmed |
The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing |
title_sort |
ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric arctic and antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing |
publisher |
Royal Society |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97891 |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Arctic Climate change North Atlantic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Arctic Arctic Climate change North Atlantic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
The Royal Society |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0040 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 1364-503X 1471-2962 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97891 Marshall, J., K. C. Armour, J. R. Scott, Y. Kostov, U. Hausmann, D. Ferreira, T. G. Shepherd, and C. M. Bitz. “The Ocean’s Role in Polar Climate Change: Asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic Responses to Greenhouse Gas and Ozone Forcing.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 372, no. 2019 (June 2, 2014): 20130040–20130040. orcid:0000-0002-8195-5938 orcid:0000-0001-9230-3591 orcid:0000-0003-4099-5789 |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0040 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
372 |
container_issue |
2019 |
container_start_page |
20130040 |
_version_ |
1768390563764109312 |