Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity
Virtually all metrics of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity show substantial increases over the past two decades. It is argued here that cooling near the tropical tropopause and the associated decrease in tropical cyclone outflow temperature contributed to the observed increase in tropical cyclone p...
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ftmit:oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/81286 2023-06-11T04:16:36+02:00 Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity Solomon, Susan Folini, Doris Davis, Sean Cagnazzo, Chiara Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Chemistry Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Solomon, Susan 2012-08 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/81286 en_US eng American Meteorological Society http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00242.1 Journal of Climate 0894-8755 1520-0442 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/81286 Emanuel, Kerry, Susan Solomon, Doris Folini, Sean Davis, and Chiara Cagnazzo. “Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity.” Journal of Climate 26, no. 7 (April 2013): 2288-2301. © 2013 American Meteorological Society orcid:0000-0002-2020-7581 orcid:0000-0002-2066-2082 Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. American Meteorological Society Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2012 ftmit https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00242.1 2023-05-29T08:31:19Z Virtually all metrics of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity show substantial increases over the past two decades. It is argued here that cooling near the tropical tropopause and the associated decrease in tropical cyclone outflow temperature contributed to the observed increase in tropical cyclone potential intensity over this period. Quantitative uncertainties in the magnitude of the cooling are important, but a broad range of observations supports some cooling. Downscalings of the output of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) that are driven by observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover produce little if any increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone metrics over the past two decades, even though observed variability before roughly 1970 is well simulated by some of the models. Part of this shortcoming is traced to the failure of the AGCMs examined to reproduce the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) over the past few decades. The authors caution against using sea surface temperature or proxies based on it to make projections of tropical cyclone activity as there can be significant contributions from other variables such as the outflow temperature. The proposed mechanisms of TTL cooling (e.g., ozone depletion and stratospheric circulation changes) are reviewed, and the need for improved representations of these processes in global models in order to improve projections of future tropical cyclone activity is emphasized. National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS-0850639) Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Journal of Climate 26 7 2288 2301 |
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Open Polar |
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DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
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ftmit |
language |
English |
description |
Virtually all metrics of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity show substantial increases over the past two decades. It is argued here that cooling near the tropical tropopause and the associated decrease in tropical cyclone outflow temperature contributed to the observed increase in tropical cyclone potential intensity over this period. Quantitative uncertainties in the magnitude of the cooling are important, but a broad range of observations supports some cooling. Downscalings of the output of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) that are driven by observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover produce little if any increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone metrics over the past two decades, even though observed variability before roughly 1970 is well simulated by some of the models. Part of this shortcoming is traced to the failure of the AGCMs examined to reproduce the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) over the past few decades. The authors caution against using sea surface temperature or proxies based on it to make projections of tropical cyclone activity as there can be significant contributions from other variables such as the outflow temperature. The proposed mechanisms of TTL cooling (e.g., ozone depletion and stratospheric circulation changes) are reviewed, and the need for improved representations of these processes in global models in order to improve projections of future tropical cyclone activity is emphasized. National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS-0850639) |
author2 |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Chemistry Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Solomon, Susan |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Solomon, Susan Folini, Doris Davis, Sean Cagnazzo, Chiara Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
spellingShingle |
Solomon, Susan Folini, Doris Davis, Sean Cagnazzo, Chiara Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity |
author_facet |
Solomon, Susan Folini, Doris Davis, Sean Cagnazzo, Chiara Emanuel, Kerry Andrew |
author_sort |
Solomon, Susan |
title |
Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity |
title_short |
Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity |
title_full |
Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity |
title_fullStr |
Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity |
title_full_unstemmed |
Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity |
title_sort |
influence of tropical tropopause layer cooling on atlantic hurricane activity |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/81286 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
American Meteorological Society |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00242.1 Journal of Climate 0894-8755 1520-0442 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/81286 Emanuel, Kerry, Susan Solomon, Doris Folini, Sean Davis, and Chiara Cagnazzo. “Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity.” Journal of Climate 26, no. 7 (April 2013): 2288-2301. © 2013 American Meteorological Society orcid:0000-0002-2020-7581 orcid:0000-0002-2066-2082 |
op_rights |
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00242.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
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26 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2288 |
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2301 |
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1768374990122516480 |