Shorebird patches as fingerprints of fractal coastline fluctuations due to climate change
Introduction: The Florida coast is one of the most species-rich ecosystems in the world. This paper focuses on the sensitivity of the habitat of threatened and endangered shorebirds to sea level rise induced by climate change, and on the relationship of the habitat with the coastline evolution. We c...
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ftmit:oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/76705 2023-06-11T04:10:46+02:00 Shorebird patches as fingerprints of fractal coastline fluctuations due to climate change Convertino, Matteo Bockelie, Adam Kiker, Gregory A Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael Linkov, Igor Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Bockelie, Adam 2013-01-30T12:12:53Z application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/76705 en eng Springer-Verlag http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/2192-1709-1-9 Ecological Processes 2192-1709 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/76705 Convertino, Matteo et al. “Shorebird Patches as Fingerprints of Fractal Coastline Fluctuations Due to Climate Change.” Ecological Processes 1.1 (2012): 9. orcid:0000-0002-8671-1430 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 Matteo Convertino et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2013 ftmit https://doi.org/10.1186/2192-1709-1-9 2023-05-29T08:42:50Z Introduction: The Florida coast is one of the most species-rich ecosystems in the world. This paper focuses on the sensitivity of the habitat of threatened and endangered shorebirds to sea level rise induced by climate change, and on the relationship of the habitat with the coastline evolution. We consider the resident Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus), and the migrant Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) and Red Knot (Calidris canutus) along the Gulf Coast of Mexico in Florida. Methods: We analyze and model the coupled dynamics of habitat patches of these imperiled shorebirds and of the shoreline geomorphology dictated by land cover change with consideration of the coastal wetlands. The land cover is modeled from 2006 to 2100 as a function of the A1B sea level rise scenario rescaled to 2 m. Using a maximum-entropy habitat suitability model and a set of macroecological criteria we delineate breeding and wintering patches for each year simulated. Results: Evidence of coupled ecogeomorphological dynamics was found by considering the fractal dimension of shorebird occurrence patterns and of the coastline. A scaling relationship between the fractal dimensions of the species patches and of the coastline was detected. The predicted power law of the patch size emerged from scale-free habitat patterns and was validated against 9 years of observations. We predict an overall 16% loss of the coastal landforms from inundation. Despite the changes in the coastline that cause habitat loss, fragmentation, and variations of patch connectivity, shorebirds self-organize by preserving a power-law distribution of the patch size in time. Yet, the probability of finding large patches is predicted to be smaller in 2100 than in 2006. The Piping Plover showed the highest fluctuation in the patch fractal dimension; thus, it is the species at greatest risk of decline. Conclusions: We propose a parsimonious modeling framework to capture macroscale ecogeomorphological patterns of coastal ecosystems. Our results suggest the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Calidris canutus Red Knot DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Ecological Processes 1 1 |
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DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
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ftmit |
language |
English |
description |
Introduction: The Florida coast is one of the most species-rich ecosystems in the world. This paper focuses on the sensitivity of the habitat of threatened and endangered shorebirds to sea level rise induced by climate change, and on the relationship of the habitat with the coastline evolution. We consider the resident Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus), and the migrant Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) and Red Knot (Calidris canutus) along the Gulf Coast of Mexico in Florida. Methods: We analyze and model the coupled dynamics of habitat patches of these imperiled shorebirds and of the shoreline geomorphology dictated by land cover change with consideration of the coastal wetlands. The land cover is modeled from 2006 to 2100 as a function of the A1B sea level rise scenario rescaled to 2 m. Using a maximum-entropy habitat suitability model and a set of macroecological criteria we delineate breeding and wintering patches for each year simulated. Results: Evidence of coupled ecogeomorphological dynamics was found by considering the fractal dimension of shorebird occurrence patterns and of the coastline. A scaling relationship between the fractal dimensions of the species patches and of the coastline was detected. The predicted power law of the patch size emerged from scale-free habitat patterns and was validated against 9 years of observations. We predict an overall 16% loss of the coastal landforms from inundation. Despite the changes in the coastline that cause habitat loss, fragmentation, and variations of patch connectivity, shorebirds self-organize by preserving a power-law distribution of the patch size in time. Yet, the probability of finding large patches is predicted to be smaller in 2100 than in 2006. The Piping Plover showed the highest fluctuation in the patch fractal dimension; thus, it is the species at greatest risk of decline. Conclusions: We propose a parsimonious modeling framework to capture macroscale ecogeomorphological patterns of coastal ecosystems. Our results suggest the ... |
author2 |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Bockelie, Adam |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Convertino, Matteo Bockelie, Adam Kiker, Gregory A Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael Linkov, Igor |
spellingShingle |
Convertino, Matteo Bockelie, Adam Kiker, Gregory A Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael Linkov, Igor Shorebird patches as fingerprints of fractal coastline fluctuations due to climate change |
author_facet |
Convertino, Matteo Bockelie, Adam Kiker, Gregory A Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael Linkov, Igor |
author_sort |
Convertino, Matteo |
title |
Shorebird patches as fingerprints of fractal coastline fluctuations due to climate change |
title_short |
Shorebird patches as fingerprints of fractal coastline fluctuations due to climate change |
title_full |
Shorebird patches as fingerprints of fractal coastline fluctuations due to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Shorebird patches as fingerprints of fractal coastline fluctuations due to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Shorebird patches as fingerprints of fractal coastline fluctuations due to climate change |
title_sort |
shorebird patches as fingerprints of fractal coastline fluctuations due to climate change |
publisher |
Springer-Verlag |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/76705 |
genre |
Calidris canutus Red Knot |
genre_facet |
Calidris canutus Red Knot |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/2192-1709-1-9 Ecological Processes 2192-1709 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/76705 Convertino, Matteo et al. “Shorebird Patches as Fingerprints of Fractal Coastline Fluctuations Due to Climate Change.” Ecological Processes 1.1 (2012): 9. orcid:0000-0002-8671-1430 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 Matteo Convertino et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/2192-1709-1-9 |
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Ecological Processes |
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