Response of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity to Increasing CO2: Results from Downscaling CMIP6 Models
© 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). Global models comprising the sixth-generation Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are dow...
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ftmit:oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/133793 2023-06-11T04:14:43+02:00 Response of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity to Increasing CO2: Results from Downscaling CMIP6 Models Emanuel, Kerry 2021-09-16T12:58:54Z application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/133793 en eng American Meteorological Society 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0367.1 Journal of Climate https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/133793 Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. American Meteorological Society (AMS) Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2021 ftmit 2023-05-29T08:53:09Z © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). Global models comprising the sixth-generation Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are downscaled using a very high-resolution but simplified coupled atmosphere-ocean tropical cyclone model, as a means of estimating the response of global tropical cyclone activity to increasing greenhouse gases. As with a previous downscaling of CMIP5 models, the results show an increase in both the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones, robust across the models downscaled, in response to increasing greenhouse gases. The increase is strongly weighted to the Northern Hemisphere, and especially noteworthy is a large increase in the higher latitudes of the North Atlantic. Changes are insignificant in the South Pacific across metrics. Although the largest increases in track density are far from land, substantial increases in global landfalling power dissipation are indicated. The incidence of rapid intensification increases rapidly with warming, as predicted by existing theory. Measures of robustness across downscaled climate models are presented, and comparisons to tropical cyclones explicitly simulated in climate models are discussed. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Pacific |
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Open Polar |
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DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
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ftmit |
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English |
description |
© 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). Global models comprising the sixth-generation Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are downscaled using a very high-resolution but simplified coupled atmosphere-ocean tropical cyclone model, as a means of estimating the response of global tropical cyclone activity to increasing greenhouse gases. As with a previous downscaling of CMIP5 models, the results show an increase in both the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones, robust across the models downscaled, in response to increasing greenhouse gases. The increase is strongly weighted to the Northern Hemisphere, and especially noteworthy is a large increase in the higher latitudes of the North Atlantic. Changes are insignificant in the South Pacific across metrics. Although the largest increases in track density are far from land, substantial increases in global landfalling power dissipation are indicated. The incidence of rapid intensification increases rapidly with warming, as predicted by existing theory. Measures of robustness across downscaled climate models are presented, and comparisons to tropical cyclones explicitly simulated in climate models are discussed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Emanuel, Kerry |
spellingShingle |
Emanuel, Kerry Response of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity to Increasing CO2: Results from Downscaling CMIP6 Models |
author_facet |
Emanuel, Kerry |
author_sort |
Emanuel, Kerry |
title |
Response of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity to Increasing CO2: Results from Downscaling CMIP6 Models |
title_short |
Response of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity to Increasing CO2: Results from Downscaling CMIP6 Models |
title_full |
Response of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity to Increasing CO2: Results from Downscaling CMIP6 Models |
title_fullStr |
Response of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity to Increasing CO2: Results from Downscaling CMIP6 Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Response of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity to Increasing CO2: Results from Downscaling CMIP6 Models |
title_sort |
response of global tropical cyclone activity to increasing co2: results from downscaling cmip6 models |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/133793 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
American Meteorological Society (AMS) |
op_relation |
10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0367.1 Journal of Climate https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/133793 |
op_rights |
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. |
_version_ |
1768370961040539648 |