Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends
We examine the 1979–2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models' inability to reproduce the observed 1979–2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SS...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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ftmit:oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/118483 2023-06-11T04:06:11+02:00 Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends Kostov, Yavor Ferreira, David Armour, Kyle C. Marshall, John C Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Marshall, John C 2018-09-26T18:00:23Z application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/118483 unknown American Geophysical Union (AGU) http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 Geophysical Research Letters 0094-8276 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/118483 Kostov, Yavor et al. “Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends.” Geophysical Research Letters 45, 2 (January 2018): 1086–1097 © 2018 American Geophysical Union orcid:0000-0001-9230-3591 Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ MIT Web Domain Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2018 ftmit https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 2023-05-29T08:50:51Z We examine the 1979–2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models' inability to reproduce the observed 1979–2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models' 1979–2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: (1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing, (2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend, and (3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters 45 2 1086 1097 |
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DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
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description |
We examine the 1979–2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models' inability to reproduce the observed 1979–2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models' 1979–2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: (1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing, (2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend, and (3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations. |
author2 |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Marshall, John C |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kostov, Yavor Ferreira, David Armour, Kyle C. Marshall, John C |
spellingShingle |
Kostov, Yavor Ferreira, David Armour, Kyle C. Marshall, John C Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends |
author_facet |
Kostov, Yavor Ferreira, David Armour, Kyle C. Marshall, John C |
author_sort |
Kostov, Yavor |
title |
Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends |
title_short |
Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends |
title_full |
Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends |
title_fullStr |
Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends |
title_sort |
contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the southern annular mode to historical southern ocean surface temperature trends |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/118483 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
MIT Web Domain |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 Geophysical Research Letters 0094-8276 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/118483 Kostov, Yavor et al. “Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends.” Geophysical Research Letters 45, 2 (January 2018): 1086–1097 © 2018 American Geophysical Union orcid:0000-0001-9230-3591 |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
45 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
1086 |
op_container_end_page |
1097 |
_version_ |
1768377986988376064 |