Dynamical Attribution of Recent Variability in Atlantic Overturning
Attributing observed variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to past changes in surface forcing is challenging but essential for detecting any influence of anthropogenic forcing and reducing uncertainty in future climate predictions. Here, quantitative estimates of sepa...
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ftmit:oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/109515 2023-06-11T04:14:41+02:00 Dynamical Attribution of Recent Variability in Atlantic Overturning Pillar, Helen R. Johnson, Helen L. Marshall, David P. Heimbach, Patrick Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Heimbach, Patrick 2016-02 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109515 en_US eng American Meteorological Society http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0727.1 Journal of Climate 0894-8755 1520-0442 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109515 Pillar, Helen R., Patrick Heimbach, Helen L. Johnson, and David P. Marshall. “Dynamical Attribution of Recent Variability in Atlantic Overturning.” Journal of Climate 29, no. 9 (May 2016): 3339–3352. © 2016 American Meteorological Society orcid:0000-0003-3925-6161 Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. American Meteorological Society Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 2016 ftmit https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0727.1 2023-05-29T08:52:09Z Attributing observed variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to past changes in surface forcing is challenging but essential for detecting any influence of anthropogenic forcing and reducing uncertainty in future climate predictions. Here, quantitative estimates of separate contributions from wind and buoyancy forcing to AMOC variations at 25°N are obtained. These estimates are achieved by projecting observed atmospheric anomalies onto model-based dynamical patterns of AMOC sensitivity to surface wind, thermal, and freshwater forcing over the preceding 15 years. Local wind forcing is shown to dominate AMOC variability on short time scales, whereas subpolar heat fluxes dominate on decadal time scales. The reconstructed transport time series successfully reproduces most of the interannual variability observed by RAPID–MOCHA. However, the apparent decadal trend in the RAPID–MOCHA time series is not captured, requiring improved model representation of ocean adjustment to subpolar heat fluxes over at least the past two decades and highlighting the importance of sustained monitoring of the high-latitude North Atlantic. United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Climate Program Office United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Physical Oceanography Program Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Journal of Climate 29 9 3339 3352 |
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Open Polar |
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DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftmit |
language |
English |
description |
Attributing observed variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to past changes in surface forcing is challenging but essential for detecting any influence of anthropogenic forcing and reducing uncertainty in future climate predictions. Here, quantitative estimates of separate contributions from wind and buoyancy forcing to AMOC variations at 25°N are obtained. These estimates are achieved by projecting observed atmospheric anomalies onto model-based dynamical patterns of AMOC sensitivity to surface wind, thermal, and freshwater forcing over the preceding 15 years. Local wind forcing is shown to dominate AMOC variability on short time scales, whereas subpolar heat fluxes dominate on decadal time scales. The reconstructed transport time series successfully reproduces most of the interannual variability observed by RAPID–MOCHA. However, the apparent decadal trend in the RAPID–MOCHA time series is not captured, requiring improved model representation of ocean adjustment to subpolar heat fluxes over at least the past two decades and highlighting the importance of sustained monitoring of the high-latitude North Atlantic. United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Climate Program Office United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Physical Oceanography Program |
author2 |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Heimbach, Patrick |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pillar, Helen R. Johnson, Helen L. Marshall, David P. Heimbach, Patrick |
spellingShingle |
Pillar, Helen R. Johnson, Helen L. Marshall, David P. Heimbach, Patrick Dynamical Attribution of Recent Variability in Atlantic Overturning |
author_facet |
Pillar, Helen R. Johnson, Helen L. Marshall, David P. Heimbach, Patrick |
author_sort |
Pillar, Helen R. |
title |
Dynamical Attribution of Recent Variability in Atlantic Overturning |
title_short |
Dynamical Attribution of Recent Variability in Atlantic Overturning |
title_full |
Dynamical Attribution of Recent Variability in Atlantic Overturning |
title_fullStr |
Dynamical Attribution of Recent Variability in Atlantic Overturning |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamical Attribution of Recent Variability in Atlantic Overturning |
title_sort |
dynamical attribution of recent variability in atlantic overturning |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109515 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
American Meteorological Society |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0727.1 Journal of Climate 0894-8755 1520-0442 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109515 Pillar, Helen R., Patrick Heimbach, Helen L. Johnson, and David P. Marshall. “Dynamical Attribution of Recent Variability in Atlantic Overturning.” Journal of Climate 29, no. 9 (May 2016): 3339–3352. © 2016 American Meteorological Society orcid:0000-0003-3925-6161 |
op_rights |
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0727.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
3339 |
op_container_end_page |
3352 |
_version_ |
1768370880674529280 |