Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations
For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of eco...
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ftmichigantuniv:oai:digitalcommons.mtu.edu:mtri_p-1050 2023-05-15T18:48:40+02:00 Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations Soja, Amber J. Tchebakova, Nadezda M. French, Nancy H.F. Flannigan, Michael D. Shugart, Herman H. Stocks, Brian J. Sukhinin, Anatoly I. Parfenova, E. I. Champin III, F. Stuart Stackhouse Jr., Paul. W. 2007-04-01T07:00:00Z https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/mtri_p/41 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028 unknown Digital Commons @ Michigan Tech https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/mtri_p/41 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028 Michigan Tech Research Institute Publications climate change evidence fire infestation disturbance treeline progression boreal montane Environmental Monitoring Environmental Sciences Physical Sciences and Mathematics text 2007 ftmichigantuniv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028 2022-01-23T10:29:30Z For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, 7 of the last 9 yr have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change. Text Alaska Siberia Michigan Technological University: Digital Commons @ Michigan Tech Canada Global and Planetary Change 56 3-4 274 296 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Michigan Technological University: Digital Commons @ Michigan Tech |
op_collection_id |
ftmichigantuniv |
language |
unknown |
topic |
climate change evidence fire infestation disturbance treeline progression boreal montane Environmental Monitoring Environmental Sciences Physical Sciences and Mathematics |
spellingShingle |
climate change evidence fire infestation disturbance treeline progression boreal montane Environmental Monitoring Environmental Sciences Physical Sciences and Mathematics Soja, Amber J. Tchebakova, Nadezda M. French, Nancy H.F. Flannigan, Michael D. Shugart, Herman H. Stocks, Brian J. Sukhinin, Anatoly I. Parfenova, E. I. Champin III, F. Stuart Stackhouse Jr., Paul. W. Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations |
topic_facet |
climate change evidence fire infestation disturbance treeline progression boreal montane Environmental Monitoring Environmental Sciences Physical Sciences and Mathematics |
description |
For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, 7 of the last 9 yr have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change. |
format |
Text |
author |
Soja, Amber J. Tchebakova, Nadezda M. French, Nancy H.F. Flannigan, Michael D. Shugart, Herman H. Stocks, Brian J. Sukhinin, Anatoly I. Parfenova, E. I. Champin III, F. Stuart Stackhouse Jr., Paul. W. |
author_facet |
Soja, Amber J. Tchebakova, Nadezda M. French, Nancy H.F. Flannigan, Michael D. Shugart, Herman H. Stocks, Brian J. Sukhinin, Anatoly I. Parfenova, E. I. Champin III, F. Stuart Stackhouse Jr., Paul. W. |
author_sort |
Soja, Amber J. |
title |
Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations |
title_short |
Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations |
title_full |
Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations |
title_fullStr |
Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations |
title_sort |
climate-induced boreal forest change: predictions versus current observations |
publisher |
Digital Commons @ Michigan Tech |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/mtri_p/41 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028 |
geographic |
Canada |
geographic_facet |
Canada |
genre |
Alaska Siberia |
genre_facet |
Alaska Siberia |
op_source |
Michigan Tech Research Institute Publications |
op_relation |
https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/mtri_p/41 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028 |
container_title |
Global and Planetary Change |
container_volume |
56 |
container_issue |
3-4 |
container_start_page |
274 |
op_container_end_page |
296 |
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1766241872324329472 |