Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification
International audience Abstract The Arctic near-surface warming is much faster than its global counterpart. Yet, this Arctic amplification occurs a rate that is season, model and forcing-dependent. The present study aims at using temperature observations and reanalyses to constrain the projections o...
Published in: | Communications Earth & Environment |
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ftmeteofrance:oai:HAL:meteo-04439041v1 2024-09-15T18:08:05+00:00 Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification Douville, Hervé Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2023-09-04 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041/file/s43247-023-00949-5.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Nature info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5 meteo-04439041 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041/file/s43247-023-00949-5.pdf doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2662-4435 Communications Earth & Environment https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041 Communications Earth & Environment, 2023, 4 (1), pp.283. ⟨10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5⟩ [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftmeteofrance https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5 2024-06-25T00:03:19Z International audience Abstract The Arctic near-surface warming is much faster than its global counterpart. Yet, this Arctic amplification occurs a rate that is season, model and forcing-dependent. The present study aims at using temperature observations and reanalyses to constrain the projections of Arctic climate during the November-to-March season. Results show that the recently observed four-fold warming ratio is not entirely due to a human influence, and will decrease with increasing radiative forcings. Global versus regional temperature observations lead to complementary constraints on the projections. When Arctic amplification is defined as the additional polar warming relative to global warming, model uncertainties are narrowed by 30% after constraint. Similar results are obtained for projected changes in the Arctic sea ice extent (40%) and when using sea ice concentration and polar temperature observations to constrain the projected polar warming (37%), thereby confirming the key role of sea ice as a positive but model-dependent surface feedback. Article in Journal/Newspaper Global warming Sea ice Météo-France: HAL Communications Earth & Environment 4 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Météo-France: HAL |
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ftmeteofrance |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology Douville, Hervé Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
description |
International audience Abstract The Arctic near-surface warming is much faster than its global counterpart. Yet, this Arctic amplification occurs a rate that is season, model and forcing-dependent. The present study aims at using temperature observations and reanalyses to constrain the projections of Arctic climate during the November-to-March season. Results show that the recently observed four-fold warming ratio is not entirely due to a human influence, and will decrease with increasing radiative forcings. Global versus regional temperature observations lead to complementary constraints on the projections. When Arctic amplification is defined as the additional polar warming relative to global warming, model uncertainties are narrowed by 30% after constraint. Similar results are obtained for projected changes in the Arctic sea ice extent (40%) and when using sea ice concentration and polar temperature observations to constrain the projected polar warming (37%), thereby confirming the key role of sea ice as a positive but model-dependent surface feedback. |
author2 |
Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Douville, Hervé |
author_facet |
Douville, Hervé |
author_sort |
Douville, Hervé |
title |
Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification |
title_short |
Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification |
title_full |
Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification |
title_fullStr |
Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification |
title_full_unstemmed |
Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification |
title_sort |
robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced arctic amplification |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041/file/s43247-023-00949-5.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5 |
genre |
Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 2662-4435 Communications Earth & Environment https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041 Communications Earth & Environment, 2023, 4 (1), pp.283. ⟨10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5 meteo-04439041 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041 https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041/document https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-04439041/file/s43247-023-00949-5.pdf doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5 |
container_title |
Communications Earth & Environment |
container_volume |
4 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1810445443786604544 |