IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline
International audience IPCC climate models underestimate the decrease of the Arctic sea ice extent. The recent Arctic sea ice decline is also characterized by a rapid thinning and by an increase of sea ice kinematics (velocities and deformation rates), with both processes being coupled through posit...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2011
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427/file/2011JC007110.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007110 |
id |
ftmeteofrance:oai:HAL:insu-00647427v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Météo-France: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftmeteofrance |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic IPCC climate models decline kinematics sea-ice [SDU.STU.GM]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geomorphology |
spellingShingle |
Arctic IPCC climate models decline kinematics sea-ice [SDU.STU.GM]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geomorphology Rampal, P. Weiss, Jérôme Dubois, C. Campin, J.-M. IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline |
topic_facet |
Arctic IPCC climate models decline kinematics sea-ice [SDU.STU.GM]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geomorphology |
description |
International audience IPCC climate models underestimate the decrease of the Arctic sea ice extent. The recent Arctic sea ice decline is also characterized by a rapid thinning and by an increase of sea ice kinematics (velocities and deformation rates), with both processes being coupled through positive feedbacks. In this study we show that IPCC climate models underestimate the observed thinning trend by a factor of almost 4 on average and fail to capture the associated accelerated motion. The coupling between the ice state (thickness and concentration) and ice velocity is unexpectedly weak in most models. In particular, sea ice drifts faster during the months when it is thick and packed than when it is thin, contrary to what is observed; also models with larger long‐term thinning trends do not show higher drift acceleration. This weak coupling behavior (1) suggests that the positive feedbacks mentioned above are underestimated and (2) can partly explain the models' underestimation of the recent sea ice area, thickness, and velocity trends. Due partly to this weak coupling, ice export does not play an important role in the simulated negative balance of Arctic sea ice mass between 1950 and 2050. If we assume a positive trend on ice speeds at straits equivalent to the one observed since 1979 within the Arctic basin, first‐order estimations give shrinking and thinning trends that become significantly closer to the observations. |
author2 |
Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences MIT, Cambridge (EAPS) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) EDGe Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) JPL-MIT Strategic University Research Partnership grant, Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) project |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rampal, P. Weiss, Jérôme Dubois, C. Campin, J.-M. |
author_facet |
Rampal, P. Weiss, Jérôme Dubois, C. Campin, J.-M. |
author_sort |
Rampal, P. |
title |
IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline |
title_short |
IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline |
title_full |
IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline |
title_fullStr |
IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline |
title_full_unstemmed |
IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline |
title_sort |
ipcc climate models do not capture arctic sea ice drift acceleration: consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427/file/2011JC007110.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007110 |
genre |
Arctic Basin Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Basin Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 2169-9275 EISSN: 2169-9291 Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427 Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, 2011, 116, 17 pp. ⟨10.1029/2011JC007110⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2011JC007110 insu-00647427 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427/file/2011JC007110.pdf doi:10.1029/2011JC007110 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007110 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research |
container_volume |
116 |
_version_ |
1797575418552778752 |
spelling |
ftmeteofrance:oai:HAL:insu-00647427v1 2024-04-28T08:05:18+00:00 IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline Rampal, P. Weiss, Jérôme Dubois, C. Campin, J.-M. Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences MIT, Cambridge (EAPS) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) EDGe Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) JPL-MIT Strategic University Research Partnership grant, Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) project 2011-09-29 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427/file/2011JC007110.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007110 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley-Blackwell info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2011JC007110 insu-00647427 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427/file/2011JC007110.pdf doi:10.1029/2011JC007110 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2169-9275 EISSN: 2169-9291 Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans https://insu.hal.science/insu-00647427 Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, 2011, 116, 17 pp. ⟨10.1029/2011JC007110⟩ Arctic IPCC climate models decline kinematics sea-ice [SDU.STU.GM]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geomorphology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2011 ftmeteofrance https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007110 2024-04-10T23:57:22Z International audience IPCC climate models underestimate the decrease of the Arctic sea ice extent. The recent Arctic sea ice decline is also characterized by a rapid thinning and by an increase of sea ice kinematics (velocities and deformation rates), with both processes being coupled through positive feedbacks. In this study we show that IPCC climate models underestimate the observed thinning trend by a factor of almost 4 on average and fail to capture the associated accelerated motion. The coupling between the ice state (thickness and concentration) and ice velocity is unexpectedly weak in most models. In particular, sea ice drifts faster during the months when it is thick and packed than when it is thin, contrary to what is observed; also models with larger long‐term thinning trends do not show higher drift acceleration. This weak coupling behavior (1) suggests that the positive feedbacks mentioned above are underestimated and (2) can partly explain the models' underestimation of the recent sea ice area, thickness, and velocity trends. Due partly to this weak coupling, ice export does not play an important role in the simulated negative balance of Arctic sea ice mass between 1950 and 2050. If we assume a positive trend on ice speeds at straits equivalent to the one observed since 1979 within the Arctic basin, first‐order estimations give shrinking and thinning trends that become significantly closer to the observations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Basin Arctic Sea ice Météo-France: HAL Journal of Geophysical Research 116 |