Climate‐Driven Projections of Future Global Wetlands Extent
International audience Abstract Wetlands are crucial components of the Earth's system, interacting with various processes such as the hydrological cycle, energy exchanges with the atmosphere, and global nitrogen and carbon cycles. The future trajectory of wetlands is anticipated to be influence...
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ftmeteofrance:oai:HAL:hal-04685049v1 2024-09-15T18:11:04+00:00 Climate‐Driven Projections of Future Global Wetlands Extent Hardouin, Lucas Decharme, Bertrand Colin, Jeanne Delire, Christine Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2024-09-02 https://hal.science/hal-04685049 https://hal.science/hal-04685049/document https://hal.science/hal-04685049/file/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202024%20-%20Hardouin%20-%20Climate%E2%80%90Driven%20Projections%20of%20Future%20Global%20Wetlands%20Extent.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004553 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2024EF004553 hal-04685049 https://hal.science/hal-04685049 https://hal.science/hal-04685049/document https://hal.science/hal-04685049/file/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202024%20-%20Hardouin%20-%20Climate%E2%80%90Driven%20Projections%20of%20Future%20Global%20Wetlands%20Extent.pdf doi:10.1029/2024EF004553 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess EISSN: 2328-4277 Earth's Future https://hal.science/hal-04685049 Earth's Future, 2024, 12 (9), ⟨10.1029/2024EF004553⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2024 ftmeteofrance https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004553 2024-09-05T23:54:05Z International audience Abstract Wetlands are crucial components of the Earth's system, interacting with various processes such as the hydrological cycle, energy exchanges with the atmosphere, and global nitrogen and carbon cycles. The future trajectory of wetlands is anticipated to be influenced not only by direct human activities, but also by climate change. Here we present our assessment of climate‐driven global changes in wetlands extent, focusing on the main wetland complexes. We used an approach based on the Topographic Hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and soil liquid water content projections from 14 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our analysis reveals a consistent decrease in wetlands extent in the Mediterranean, Central America, and northern South America, with a substantial loss of 28% in the western Amazon Basin for the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under the SSP370 scenario. Conversely, Central Africa exhibits an increase in wetlands extent, except in the Congo Basin. Nevertheless, most of the areas studied (80%) present uncertain results, due to conflicting projections of changes between the models. Notably, we show that there is significant uncertainty among CMIP6 models regarding liquid soil water content in high latitudes. By narrowing our focus to 10 models, which seem to better represent the thawing of permafrost, we obtain a better inter‐model agreement. We then find a modest declines in the overall global area (<5%), but an average loss of 13% beyond 50°N. Specific areas like the Hudson Bay Lowlands experiencing a 21% decrease and the Western Siberian Lowlands a 15% decrease. Article in Journal/Newspaper Hudson Bay permafrost Météo-France: HAL Earth's Future 12 9 |
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Open Polar |
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Météo-France: HAL |
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ftmeteofrance |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences Hardouin, Lucas Decharme, Bertrand Colin, Jeanne Delire, Christine Climate‐Driven Projections of Future Global Wetlands Extent |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Abstract Wetlands are crucial components of the Earth's system, interacting with various processes such as the hydrological cycle, energy exchanges with the atmosphere, and global nitrogen and carbon cycles. The future trajectory of wetlands is anticipated to be influenced not only by direct human activities, but also by climate change. Here we present our assessment of climate‐driven global changes in wetlands extent, focusing on the main wetland complexes. We used an approach based on the Topographic Hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and soil liquid water content projections from 14 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our analysis reveals a consistent decrease in wetlands extent in the Mediterranean, Central America, and northern South America, with a substantial loss of 28% in the western Amazon Basin for the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under the SSP370 scenario. Conversely, Central Africa exhibits an increase in wetlands extent, except in the Congo Basin. Nevertheless, most of the areas studied (80%) present uncertain results, due to conflicting projections of changes between the models. Notably, we show that there is significant uncertainty among CMIP6 models regarding liquid soil water content in high latitudes. By narrowing our focus to 10 models, which seem to better represent the thawing of permafrost, we obtain a better inter‐model agreement. We then find a modest declines in the overall global area (<5%), but an average loss of 13% beyond 50°N. Specific areas like the Hudson Bay Lowlands experiencing a 21% decrease and the Western Siberian Lowlands a 15% decrease. |
author2 |
Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hardouin, Lucas Decharme, Bertrand Colin, Jeanne Delire, Christine |
author_facet |
Hardouin, Lucas Decharme, Bertrand Colin, Jeanne Delire, Christine |
author_sort |
Hardouin, Lucas |
title |
Climate‐Driven Projections of Future Global Wetlands Extent |
title_short |
Climate‐Driven Projections of Future Global Wetlands Extent |
title_full |
Climate‐Driven Projections of Future Global Wetlands Extent |
title_fullStr |
Climate‐Driven Projections of Future Global Wetlands Extent |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate‐Driven Projections of Future Global Wetlands Extent |
title_sort |
climate‐driven projections of future global wetlands extent |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04685049 https://hal.science/hal-04685049/document https://hal.science/hal-04685049/file/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202024%20-%20Hardouin%20-%20Climate%E2%80%90Driven%20Projections%20of%20Future%20Global%20Wetlands%20Extent.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004553 |
genre |
Hudson Bay permafrost |
genre_facet |
Hudson Bay permafrost |
op_source |
EISSN: 2328-4277 Earth's Future https://hal.science/hal-04685049 Earth's Future, 2024, 12 (9), ⟨10.1029/2024EF004553⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2024EF004553 hal-04685049 https://hal.science/hal-04685049 https://hal.science/hal-04685049/document https://hal.science/hal-04685049/file/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202024%20-%20Hardouin%20-%20Climate%E2%80%90Driven%20Projections%20of%20Future%20Global%20Wetlands%20Extent.pdf doi:10.1029/2024EF004553 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004553 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
9 |
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1810448676845256704 |