The Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation
International audience Although the quality of weather forecasts in the polar regions is improving, forecast skill there still lags behind lower latitudes. So far there have been relatively few efforts to evaluate processes in numerical weather prediction systems using in situ and remote sensing dat...
Published in: | Geoscientific Model Development |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04679630 https://hal.science/hal-04679630/document https://hal.science/hal-04679630/file/gmd-17-5511-2024.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024 |
id |
ftmeteofrance:oai:HAL:hal-04679630v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftmeteofrance:oai:HAL:hal-04679630v1 2024-09-15T17:45:36+00:00 The Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation Day, Jonathan, J Svensson, Gunilla Casati, Barbara Uttal, Taneil Khalsa, Siri-Jodha Bazile, Eric Akish, Elena Azouz, Niramson Ferrighi, Lara Frank, Helmut Gallagher, Michael Godøy, Øystein Hartten, Leslie, M Huang, Laura, X Holt, Jareth Di Stefano, Massimo Suomi, Irene Mariani, Zen Morris, Sara O'Connor, Ewan Pirazzini, Roberta Remes, Teresa Fadeev, Rostislav Solomon, Amy Tjernström, Johanna Tolstykh, Mikhail CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France 2024-07-24 https://hal.science/hal-04679630 https://hal.science/hal-04679630/document https://hal.science/hal-04679630/file/gmd-17-5511-2024.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024 hal-04679630 https://hal.science/hal-04679630 https://hal.science/hal-04679630/document https://hal.science/hal-04679630/file/gmd-17-5511-2024.pdf doi:10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1991-9603 EISSN: 1991-959X Geoscientific Model Development https://hal.science/hal-04679630 Geoscientific Model Development, 2024, 17, pp.5511 - 5543. ⟨10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2024 ftmeteofrance https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024 2024-09-05T23:54:05Z International audience Although the quality of weather forecasts in the polar regions is improving, forecast skill there still lags behind lower latitudes. So far there have been relatively few efforts to evaluate processes in numerical weather prediction systems using in situ and remote sensing datasets from meteorological observatories in the terrestrial Arctic and Antarctic compared to the mid-latitudes. Progress has been limited both by the heterogeneous nature of observatory and forecast data and by limited availability of the parameters needed to perform process-oriented evaluation in multi-model forecast archives. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) site Model Inter-comparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) is addressing this gap by producing merged observatory data files (MODFs) and merged model data files (MMDFs), bringing together observations and forecast data at polar meteorological ob-servatories in a format designed to facilitate process-oriented evaluation. An evaluation of forecast performance was performed at seven Arctic sites, focussing on the first YOPP Special Observing Period in the Northern Hemisphere (NH-SOP1) in February and March 2018. It demonstrated that although the characteristics of forecast skill vary between the different sites and systems, an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variability across models, which goes hand in hand with an inability to capture cold extremes, is a common issue at several sites. It is found that many models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of the 2 m air temperature (T2m) and the surface skin temperature to variations in radiative forcing, and the reasons for this are discussed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Météo-France: HAL Geoscientific Model Development 17 14 5511 5543 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Météo-France: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftmeteofrance |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences Day, Jonathan, J Svensson, Gunilla Casati, Barbara Uttal, Taneil Khalsa, Siri-Jodha Bazile, Eric Akish, Elena Azouz, Niramson Ferrighi, Lara Frank, Helmut Gallagher, Michael Godøy, Øystein Hartten, Leslie, M Huang, Laura, X Holt, Jareth Di Stefano, Massimo Suomi, Irene Mariani, Zen Morris, Sara O'Connor, Ewan Pirazzini, Roberta Remes, Teresa Fadeev, Rostislav Solomon, Amy Tjernström, Johanna Tolstykh, Mikhail The Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Although the quality of weather forecasts in the polar regions is improving, forecast skill there still lags behind lower latitudes. So far there have been relatively few efforts to evaluate processes in numerical weather prediction systems using in situ and remote sensing datasets from meteorological observatories in the terrestrial Arctic and Antarctic compared to the mid-latitudes. Progress has been limited both by the heterogeneous nature of observatory and forecast data and by limited availability of the parameters needed to perform process-oriented evaluation in multi-model forecast archives. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) site Model Inter-comparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) is addressing this gap by producing merged observatory data files (MODFs) and merged model data files (MMDFs), bringing together observations and forecast data at polar meteorological ob-servatories in a format designed to facilitate process-oriented evaluation. An evaluation of forecast performance was performed at seven Arctic sites, focussing on the first YOPP Special Observing Period in the Northern Hemisphere (NH-SOP1) in February and March 2018. It demonstrated that although the characteristics of forecast skill vary between the different sites and systems, an underestimation in boundary layer temperature variability across models, which goes hand in hand with an inability to capture cold extremes, is a common issue at several sites. It is found that many models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of the 2 m air temperature (T2m) and the surface skin temperature to variations in radiative forcing, and the reasons for this are discussed. |
author2 |
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Day, Jonathan, J Svensson, Gunilla Casati, Barbara Uttal, Taneil Khalsa, Siri-Jodha Bazile, Eric Akish, Elena Azouz, Niramson Ferrighi, Lara Frank, Helmut Gallagher, Michael Godøy, Øystein Hartten, Leslie, M Huang, Laura, X Holt, Jareth Di Stefano, Massimo Suomi, Irene Mariani, Zen Morris, Sara O'Connor, Ewan Pirazzini, Roberta Remes, Teresa Fadeev, Rostislav Solomon, Amy Tjernström, Johanna Tolstykh, Mikhail |
author_facet |
Day, Jonathan, J Svensson, Gunilla Casati, Barbara Uttal, Taneil Khalsa, Siri-Jodha Bazile, Eric Akish, Elena Azouz, Niramson Ferrighi, Lara Frank, Helmut Gallagher, Michael Godøy, Øystein Hartten, Leslie, M Huang, Laura, X Holt, Jareth Di Stefano, Massimo Suomi, Irene Mariani, Zen Morris, Sara O'Connor, Ewan Pirazzini, Roberta Remes, Teresa Fadeev, Rostislav Solomon, Amy Tjernström, Johanna Tolstykh, Mikhail |
author_sort |
Day, Jonathan, J |
title |
The Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation |
title_short |
The Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation |
title_full |
The Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation |
title_fullStr |
The Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP) phase 1: project overview and Arctic winter forecast evaluation |
title_sort |
year of polar prediction site model intercomparison project (yoppsitemip) phase 1: project overview and arctic winter forecast evaluation |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04679630 https://hal.science/hal-04679630/document https://hal.science/hal-04679630/file/gmd-17-5511-2024.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1991-9603 EISSN: 1991-959X Geoscientific Model Development https://hal.science/hal-04679630 Geoscientific Model Development, 2024, 17, pp.5511 - 5543. ⟨10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024 hal-04679630 https://hal.science/hal-04679630 https://hal.science/hal-04679630/document https://hal.science/hal-04679630/file/gmd-17-5511-2024.pdf doi:10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5511-2024 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
5511 |
op_container_end_page |
5543 |
_version_ |
1810493497075040256 |