Summer Deep Depressions Increase Over the Eastern North Atlantic

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: d'Andrea, Fabio, Duvel, Jean-Philippe, Rivière, Gwendal, Vautard, Robert, Cassou, Christophe, Cattiaux, Julien, Coumou, Dim, Faranda, Davide, Happé, Tamara, Jézéquel, Aglaé, Ribes, Aurelien, Yiou, Pascal
• Other Authors: Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), London Mathematical Laboratory, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA))
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2024
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces; environment; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-04488347; https://hal.science/hal-04488347/document; https://hal.science/hal-04488347/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202024%20-%20D%27Andrea%20-%20Summer%20Deep%20Depressions%20Increase%20Over%20the%20Eastern%20North%20Atlantic.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104435

International audience Mid-tropospheric deep depressions in summer over the North Atlantic are shown to have strongly increased in the eastern and strongly decreased in the western North Atlantic region. This evolution is linked to a change in baroclinicity in the west of the North Atlantic ocean and over the North American coast, likely due to the increased surface temperature there. Deep depressions in the Eastern North Atlantic are linked to a temperature pattern typical of extreme heat events in the region. The same analysis is applied to a sample of CMIP6 model outputs, and no such trends are found. This study suggests a link between the observed increase of summer extreme heat events in the region and the increase of the number of Atlantic depressions. The failure of CMIP6 models to reproduce these events can consequently also reside in an incorrect reproduction of this specific feature of midlatitude atmospheric dynamics. Plain Language Summary Extreme temperatures events in Western Europe have been rising fast, and current global climate models are not able to reproduce this excess. There are different hypotheses to explain this discrepancy. One is that the large-scale atmospheric dynamics, responsible for the local weather, is not correctly represented by the models: indeed, the frequency and amplitude of some specific weather phenomena have been shown to be insufficiently reproduced, especially in summer. Here, we study one such phenomenon, namely the transient deep depressions, or extratropical cyclones, that travel across the Atlantic basin. A significant large increase of the number of these events is found in summer in the region of the North Atlantic off the western European coast. Depressions in that region are accompanied by high temperatures in continental western Europe. An ensemble of state of the art climate models are also analyzed and none of them is able to correctly reproduce the frequency of deep depressions nor their large trend, which suggests a common origin with the insufficient ...