Multi-decadal analysis of past winter temperature, precipitation and snow cover data in the European Alps from reanalyses, climate models and observational datasets

• Published in: The Cryosphere
• Main Authors: Monteiro, Diego, Morin, Samuel
• Other Authors: Centre d'Etudes de la Neige (CEN), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG ), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2023
• Subjects: [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology; The Cryosphere
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-04189048; https://hal.science/hal-04189048/document; https://hal.science/hal-04189048/file/tc-17-3617-2023.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3617-2023

International audience Assessing past distributions, variability and trends in the mountain snow cover and its first-order drivers, temperature and precipitation, is key for a wide range of studies and applications. In this study, we compare the results of various modeling systems (global and regional reanalyses ERA5, ERA5-Land, ERA5-Crocus, CERRA-Land, UERRA MESCAN-SURFEX and MTMSI and regional climate model simulations CNRM-ALADIN and CNRM-AROME driven by the global reanalysis ERA-Interim) against observational references (in situ, gridded observational datasets and satellite observations) across the European Alps from 1950 to 2020. The comparisons are performed in terms of monthly and seasonal snow cover variables (snow depth and snow cover duration) and their main atmospherical drivers (near-surface temperature and precipitation). We assess multi-annual averages of regional and subregional mean values, their interannual variations, and trends over various timescales, mainly for the winter period (from November through April). ERA5, ERA5-Crocus, MESCAN-SURFEX, CERRA-Land and MTMSI offer a satisfying description of the monthly snow evolution. However, a spatial comparison against satellite observation indicates that all datasets overestimate the snow cover duration, especially the melt-out date. CNRM-AROME and CNRM-ALADIN simulations and ERA5-Land exhibit an overestimation of the snow accumulation during winter, increasing with elevations. The analysis of the interannual variability and trends indicates that modeling snow cover dynamics remains complex across multiple scales and that none of the models evaluated here fully succeed to reproduce this compared to observational reference datasets. Indeed, while most of the evaluated model outputs perform well at representing the interannual to multi-decadal winter temperature and precipitation variability, they often fail to address the variability in the snow depth and snow cover duration. We discuss several artifacts potentially responsible for incorrect ...