A global probabilistic study of the ocean heat content low-frequency variability: Atmospheric forcing versus oceanic chaos

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Sérazin, Guillaume, Jaymond, Alexandre, Leroux, Stephanie, Penduff, Thierry, Bessières, Laurent, Llovel, W., Barnier, Bernard, Molines, Jean-Marc, Terray, Laurent
• Other Authors: Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ), Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux (IMB), Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux (Bordeaux INP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (SIO), Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow (RAS), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2017
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; Sea ice; Southern Ocean
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03003527; https://hal.science/hal-03003527v2/document; https://hal.science/hal-03003527v2/file/2017GL073026.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073026

International audience A global 1/4 ∘ ocean/sea ice 50-member ensemble simulation is used to disentangle the low-frequency imprints of the atmospherically forced oceanic variability and of the chaotic intrinsic oceanic variability (IOV) on the large-scale (10 ∘ × 10 ∘) ocean heat content (OHC) between 1980 and 2010. The IOV explains most of the interannual-to-decadal large-scale OHC variance over substantial fractions of the global ocean area that increase with depth: 9%, 22%, and 31% in the 0-700 m, 700-2000 m and 2000 m bottom layers, respectively. Such areas concern principally eddy-active regions, mostly found in the Southern Ocean and in western boundary current extensions, and also concern the subtropical gyres at intermediate and deep levels. The oceanic chaos may also induce random multidecadal fluctuations so that large-scale regional OHC trends computed on the 1980-2010 period cannot be unambiguously attributed to the atmospheric forcing in several oceanic basins at various depths. These results are likely to raise detection and attribution issues from real observations.