Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions
International audience Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2017
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-01584144 https://hal.science/hal-01584144/document https://hal.science/hal-01584144/file/esd-8-577-2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017 |
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Météo-France: HAL |
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ftmeteofrance |
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English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Hansen, James Sato, Makiko Kharecha, Pushker von Schuckmann, Karina Beerling, David J. Cao, Junji Marcott, Shaun Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Prather, Michael J. Rohling, Eelco J. Shakun, Jeremy Smith, Pete Lacis, Andrew Russell, Gary Ruedy, Reto Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 °C relative to the 1880–1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 °C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6–9 m higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying that more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict, but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming thus, at minimum, should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets now require "negative emissions", i.e., extraction of CO 2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content, may provide much of the necessary CO 2 extraction. In that case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions today place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO 2 extraction if they are to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO 2 have minimal estimated costs of USD 89–535 trillion ... |
author2 |
Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions Columbia University New York Mercator Océan Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Service hydrographique et océanographique de la Marine-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France Department of Animal and Plant Sciences University of Sheffield Sheffield Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) University of California Irvine (UC Irvine) University of California (UC) National Oceanography Centre Southampton (NOC) University of Southampton Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences Aberdeen University of Aberdeen NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences New York |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hansen, James Sato, Makiko Kharecha, Pushker von Schuckmann, Karina Beerling, David J. Cao, Junji Marcott, Shaun Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Prather, Michael J. Rohling, Eelco J. Shakun, Jeremy Smith, Pete Lacis, Andrew Russell, Gary Ruedy, Reto |
author_facet |
Hansen, James Sato, Makiko Kharecha, Pushker von Schuckmann, Karina Beerling, David J. Cao, Junji Marcott, Shaun Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Prather, Michael J. Rohling, Eelco J. Shakun, Jeremy Smith, Pete Lacis, Andrew Russell, Gary Ruedy, Reto |
author_sort |
Hansen, James |
title |
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions |
title_short |
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions |
title_full |
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions |
title_fullStr |
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions |
title_sort |
young people's burden: requirement of negative co 2 emissions |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01584144 https://hal.science/hal-01584144/document https://hal.science/hal-01584144/file/esd-8-577-2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_source |
ISSN: 2190-4979 EISSN: 2190-4987 Earth System Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-01584144 Earth System Dynamics, 2017, 8 (3), pp.577 - 616. ⟨10.5194/esd-8-577-2017⟩ https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/577/2017/ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017 hal-01584144 https://hal.science/hal-01584144 https://hal.science/hal-01584144/document https://hal.science/hal-01584144/file/esd-8-577-2017.pdf doi:10.5194/esd-8-577-2017 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
577 |
op_container_end_page |
616 |
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1801376850433277952 |
spelling |
ftmeteofrance:oai:HAL:hal-01584144v1 2024-06-09T07:46:51+00:00 Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions Hansen, James Sato, Makiko Kharecha, Pushker von Schuckmann, Karina Beerling, David J. Cao, Junji Marcott, Shaun Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Prather, Michael J. Rohling, Eelco J. Shakun, Jeremy Smith, Pete Lacis, Andrew Russell, Gary Ruedy, Reto Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions Columbia University New York Mercator Océan Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Service hydrographique et océanographique de la Marine-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France Department of Animal and Plant Sciences University of Sheffield Sheffield Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) University of California Irvine (UC Irvine) University of California (UC) National Oceanography Centre Southampton (NOC) University of Southampton Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences Aberdeen University of Aberdeen NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences New York 2017 https://hal.science/hal-01584144 https://hal.science/hal-01584144/document https://hal.science/hal-01584144/file/esd-8-577-2017.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017 hal-01584144 https://hal.science/hal-01584144 https://hal.science/hal-01584144/document https://hal.science/hal-01584144/file/esd-8-577-2017.pdf doi:10.5194/esd-8-577-2017 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2190-4979 EISSN: 2190-4987 Earth System Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-01584144 Earth System Dynamics, 2017, 8 (3), pp.577 - 616. ⟨10.5194/esd-8-577-2017⟩ https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/577/2017/ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2017 ftmeteofrance https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017 2024-05-16T11:58:04Z International audience Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 °C relative to the 1880–1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 °C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6–9 m higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying that more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict, but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming thus, at minimum, should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets now require "negative emissions", i.e., extraction of CO 2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content, may provide much of the necessary CO 2 extraction. In that case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions today place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO 2 extraction if they are to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO 2 have minimal estimated costs of USD 89–535 trillion ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Météo-France: HAL Earth System Dynamics 8 3 577 616 |