The First Five Years of the Operational Runs of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) during the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season
In this study, we evaluated the ability of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) system, operational at the Department of Meteorology of the Higher Institute of Technologies and Applied Sciences, University of Havana, Cuba, for forecasting the intensity and trajectory of the North Atlant...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2674-0494/1/2/10/ 2023-08-20T04:08:13+02:00 The First Five Years of the Operational Runs of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) during the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season Albenis Pérez-Alarcón José C. Fernández-Alvarez 2022-04-13 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020010 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020010 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Meteorology; Volume 1; Issue 2; Pages: 154-161 tropical cyclones trajectory intensity forecasts NTHF statistical validation numerical model Text 2022 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020010 2023-08-01T04:44:35Z In this study, we evaluated the ability of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) system, operational at the Department of Meteorology of the Higher Institute of Technologies and Applied Sciences, University of Havana, Cuba, for forecasting the intensity and trajectory of the North Atlantic (NATL) tropical cyclones (TCs). To assess the ability of the NTHF system in the first five years (2016–2020) of operational runs, we used the best tracks from the National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 database. The errors in the track forecast increased linearly from 41 km at 6 h to 356 km at 120 h. In addition, NTHF underestimates the intensity of TCs, especially those that reach Category 3+ hurricanes on the Saffir–Simpson wind scale. Overall, the mean absolute error in forecasting the maximum wind speed (minimum pressure) ranged from 26.5 km/h (7 hPa) to 33.7 km/h (11.7 hPa). Moreover, the highest BIAS in the intensity forecast was found in the first 48 h, suggesting that model initialization is the main driver of NTHF errors in the forecast maximum wind speed and the minimum central pressure of TCs in the North Atlantic Basin. Text North Atlantic MDPI Open Access Publishing Meteorology 1 2 154 161 |
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Open Polar |
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English |
topic |
tropical cyclones trajectory intensity forecasts NTHF statistical validation numerical model |
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tropical cyclones trajectory intensity forecasts NTHF statistical validation numerical model Albenis Pérez-Alarcón José C. Fernández-Alvarez The First Five Years of the Operational Runs of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) during the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season |
topic_facet |
tropical cyclones trajectory intensity forecasts NTHF statistical validation numerical model |
description |
In this study, we evaluated the ability of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) system, operational at the Department of Meteorology of the Higher Institute of Technologies and Applied Sciences, University of Havana, Cuba, for forecasting the intensity and trajectory of the North Atlantic (NATL) tropical cyclones (TCs). To assess the ability of the NTHF system in the first five years (2016–2020) of operational runs, we used the best tracks from the National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 database. The errors in the track forecast increased linearly from 41 km at 6 h to 356 km at 120 h. In addition, NTHF underestimates the intensity of TCs, especially those that reach Category 3+ hurricanes on the Saffir–Simpson wind scale. Overall, the mean absolute error in forecasting the maximum wind speed (minimum pressure) ranged from 26.5 km/h (7 hPa) to 33.7 km/h (11.7 hPa). Moreover, the highest BIAS in the intensity forecast was found in the first 48 h, suggesting that model initialization is the main driver of NTHF errors in the forecast maximum wind speed and the minimum central pressure of TCs in the North Atlantic Basin. |
format |
Text |
author |
Albenis Pérez-Alarcón José C. Fernández-Alvarez |
author_facet |
Albenis Pérez-Alarcón José C. Fernández-Alvarez |
author_sort |
Albenis Pérez-Alarcón |
title |
The First Five Years of the Operational Runs of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) during the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season |
title_short |
The First Five Years of the Operational Runs of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) during the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season |
title_full |
The First Five Years of the Operational Runs of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) during the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season |
title_fullStr |
The First Five Years of the Operational Runs of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) during the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season |
title_full_unstemmed |
The First Five Years of the Operational Runs of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) during the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season |
title_sort |
first five years of the operational runs of the numerical tools for hurricane forecast (nthf) during the north atlantic tropical cyclone season |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020010 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Meteorology; Volume 1; Issue 2; Pages: 154-161 |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020010 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020010 |
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Meteorology |
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1 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
154 |
op_container_end_page |
161 |
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1774720371213205504 |