Performance Evaluation of Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) System during 2020 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Season

• Published in: Environmental Sciences Proceedings
• Main Authors: Albenis Pérez-Alarcón, José C. Fernández-Alvarez, Alfo J. Batista-Leyva
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute 2021
• Subjects: tropical cyclones; numerical model; statistical validation; intensity forecast; track forecast; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3390/ecas2021-10332

This study evaluates the performance of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) system during the 2020 North Atlantic (NATL) tropical cyclones (TCs) season. The system is configured to provide 5-day forecasts with basic input from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Global Forecast System. For the NTHF validation, the NHC operational best track was used. The average track errors for 2020 NATL TCs ranged from 62 km at 12 h to 368 km at 120 h. The NTHF track forecast errors displayed an improvement over 60% above the guidance Climatology and Persistence (CLIPER) model from 36 h to 96 h, although the NTHF was better than the CLIPER in all forecast periods. The forecast errors for the maximum wind speed (minimum central pressure) ranged between 20 km/h and 25 km/h (4 hPa to 8 hPa), but the NTHF model intensity forecasts showed only marginal improvement of less than 20% after 78 h over the baseline Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (D-SHIPS) model. Nevertheless, the NTHF’s ability to provide accurate intensity forecasts for the 2020 NATL TCs was higher than the NTHF’s average ability during the 2016–2019 period.