Statistical Prediction of Extreme Storm Surges Based on a Fully Supervised Weather-Type Downscaling Model
Increasing our capacity to predict extreme storm surges is one of the key issues in terms of coastal flood risk prevention and adaptation. Dynamically forecasting storm surges is computationally expensive. Here, we focus on an alternative data-driven approach and set up a weather-type statistical do...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2077-1312/8/12/1028/ 2023-08-20T04:08:41+02:00 Statistical Prediction of Extreme Storm Surges Based on a Fully Supervised Weather-Type Downscaling Model Wagner Costa Déborah Idier Jérémy Rohmer Melisa Menendez Paula Camus agris 2020-12-16 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8121028 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Ocean Engineering https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse8121028 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Journal of Marine Science and Engineering; Volume 8; Issue 12; Pages: 1028 statistical downscaling weather types storm surge fully supervised classification Xynthia storm Joachim storm tide gauge La Rochelle Text 2020 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8121028 2023-08-01T00:40:50Z Increasing our capacity to predict extreme storm surges is one of the key issues in terms of coastal flood risk prevention and adaptation. Dynamically forecasting storm surges is computationally expensive. Here, we focus on an alternative data-driven approach and set up a weather-type statistical downscaling for daily maximum storm surge (SS) prediction, using atmospheric hindcasts (CFSR and CFSv2) and 15 years of tidal gauge station measurements. We focus on predicting the storm surge at La Rochelle–La Pallice tidal gauge station. First, based on a sensitivity analysis to the various parameters of the weather-type approach, we find that the model configuration providing the best performance in SS prediction relies on a fully supervised classification using minimum daily sea level pressure (SLP) and maximum SLP gradient, with 1° resolution in the northeast Atlantic domain as the predictor. Second, we compare the resulting optimal model with the inverse barometer approach and other statistical models (multi-linear regression; semi-supervised and unsupervised weather-types based approaches). The optimal configuration provides more accurate predictions for extreme storm surges, but also the capacity to identify unusual atmospheric storm patterns that can lead to extreme storm surges, as the Xynthia storm for instance (a decrease in the maximum absolute error of 50%). Text Northeast Atlantic MDPI Open Access Publishing Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 8 12 1028 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
statistical downscaling weather types storm surge fully supervised classification Xynthia storm Joachim storm tide gauge La Rochelle |
spellingShingle |
statistical downscaling weather types storm surge fully supervised classification Xynthia storm Joachim storm tide gauge La Rochelle Wagner Costa Déborah Idier Jérémy Rohmer Melisa Menendez Paula Camus Statistical Prediction of Extreme Storm Surges Based on a Fully Supervised Weather-Type Downscaling Model |
topic_facet |
statistical downscaling weather types storm surge fully supervised classification Xynthia storm Joachim storm tide gauge La Rochelle |
description |
Increasing our capacity to predict extreme storm surges is one of the key issues in terms of coastal flood risk prevention and adaptation. Dynamically forecasting storm surges is computationally expensive. Here, we focus on an alternative data-driven approach and set up a weather-type statistical downscaling for daily maximum storm surge (SS) prediction, using atmospheric hindcasts (CFSR and CFSv2) and 15 years of tidal gauge station measurements. We focus on predicting the storm surge at La Rochelle–La Pallice tidal gauge station. First, based on a sensitivity analysis to the various parameters of the weather-type approach, we find that the model configuration providing the best performance in SS prediction relies on a fully supervised classification using minimum daily sea level pressure (SLP) and maximum SLP gradient, with 1° resolution in the northeast Atlantic domain as the predictor. Second, we compare the resulting optimal model with the inverse barometer approach and other statistical models (multi-linear regression; semi-supervised and unsupervised weather-types based approaches). The optimal configuration provides more accurate predictions for extreme storm surges, but also the capacity to identify unusual atmospheric storm patterns that can lead to extreme storm surges, as the Xynthia storm for instance (a decrease in the maximum absolute error of 50%). |
format |
Text |
author |
Wagner Costa Déborah Idier Jérémy Rohmer Melisa Menendez Paula Camus |
author_facet |
Wagner Costa Déborah Idier Jérémy Rohmer Melisa Menendez Paula Camus |
author_sort |
Wagner Costa |
title |
Statistical Prediction of Extreme Storm Surges Based on a Fully Supervised Weather-Type Downscaling Model |
title_short |
Statistical Prediction of Extreme Storm Surges Based on a Fully Supervised Weather-Type Downscaling Model |
title_full |
Statistical Prediction of Extreme Storm Surges Based on a Fully Supervised Weather-Type Downscaling Model |
title_fullStr |
Statistical Prediction of Extreme Storm Surges Based on a Fully Supervised Weather-Type Downscaling Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical Prediction of Extreme Storm Surges Based on a Fully Supervised Weather-Type Downscaling Model |
title_sort |
statistical prediction of extreme storm surges based on a fully supervised weather-type downscaling model |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8121028 |
op_coverage |
agris |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering; Volume 8; Issue 12; Pages: 1028 |
op_relation |
Ocean Engineering https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse8121028 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8121028 |
container_title |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
1028 |
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1774721092421681152 |