Cost–Benefit Analysis of a Trans-Arctic Alternative Route to the Suez Canal: A Method Based on High-Fidelity Ship Performance, Weather, and Ice Forecast Models
Climate change in recent years has produced viable shipping routes in the Arctic. However, critical uncertainties related to maritime operations in the Arctic make it difficult to predict ship speeds in ice and, thus, the voyage time and fuel costs. Cost–benefit analysis of alternative Arctic routes...
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Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
2023
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 |
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2077-1312/11/4/711/ 2023-08-20T04:03:24+02:00 Cost–Benefit Analysis of a Trans-Arctic Alternative Route to the Suez Canal: A Method Based on High-Fidelity Ship Performance, Weather, and Ice Forecast Models Zhiyuan Li Li Ding Luofeng Huang Jonas W. Ringsberg Hui Gong Nicolas Fournier Zhenju Chuang agris 2023-03-25 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Ocean Engineering https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Journal of Marine Science and Engineering; Volume 11; Issue 4; Pages: 711 arctic shipping Northern Sea Route cost–benefit analysis Weather and Ice Forecast Models ice resistance simulation icebreaker tariff Text 2023 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 2023-08-01T09:26:09Z Climate change in recent years has produced viable shipping routes in the Arctic. However, critical uncertainties related to maritime operations in the Arctic make it difficult to predict ship speeds in ice and, thus, the voyage time and fuel costs. Cost–benefit analysis of alternative Arctic routes based on accurate environmental condition modeling is required. In this context, this paper presents a holistic approach that considers the major voyage-related costs of a trans-Arctic route as an alternative to the conventional routes via the Suez Canal Route (SCR) for existing merchant ships. This tool is based on high-fidelity models of ship performance, metocean forecasting, and a voyage optimization algorithm. Case studies are performed based on a general cargo vessel in operation to quantify realistic expenses inclusive of all the major operational, fuel, and voyage costs of the specific voyages. A comparison is made between the total costs of the trans-Arctic route and SCR for different seasons, which proves the economic feasibility of the trans-Arctic route. Overall, this work can provide valuable insights to help policymakers as well as shipbuilders, owners, and operators to assess the potential cost-effectiveness and sustainability of future Arctic shipping, thereby better developing future strategies. Text Arctic Climate change Icebreaker Northern Sea Route MDPI Open Access Publishing Arctic Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 11 4 711 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
arctic shipping Northern Sea Route cost–benefit analysis Weather and Ice Forecast Models ice resistance simulation icebreaker tariff |
spellingShingle |
arctic shipping Northern Sea Route cost–benefit analysis Weather and Ice Forecast Models ice resistance simulation icebreaker tariff Zhiyuan Li Li Ding Luofeng Huang Jonas W. Ringsberg Hui Gong Nicolas Fournier Zhenju Chuang Cost–Benefit Analysis of a Trans-Arctic Alternative Route to the Suez Canal: A Method Based on High-Fidelity Ship Performance, Weather, and Ice Forecast Models |
topic_facet |
arctic shipping Northern Sea Route cost–benefit analysis Weather and Ice Forecast Models ice resistance simulation icebreaker tariff |
description |
Climate change in recent years has produced viable shipping routes in the Arctic. However, critical uncertainties related to maritime operations in the Arctic make it difficult to predict ship speeds in ice and, thus, the voyage time and fuel costs. Cost–benefit analysis of alternative Arctic routes based on accurate environmental condition modeling is required. In this context, this paper presents a holistic approach that considers the major voyage-related costs of a trans-Arctic route as an alternative to the conventional routes via the Suez Canal Route (SCR) for existing merchant ships. This tool is based on high-fidelity models of ship performance, metocean forecasting, and a voyage optimization algorithm. Case studies are performed based on a general cargo vessel in operation to quantify realistic expenses inclusive of all the major operational, fuel, and voyage costs of the specific voyages. A comparison is made between the total costs of the trans-Arctic route and SCR for different seasons, which proves the economic feasibility of the trans-Arctic route. Overall, this work can provide valuable insights to help policymakers as well as shipbuilders, owners, and operators to assess the potential cost-effectiveness and sustainability of future Arctic shipping, thereby better developing future strategies. |
format |
Text |
author |
Zhiyuan Li Li Ding Luofeng Huang Jonas W. Ringsberg Hui Gong Nicolas Fournier Zhenju Chuang |
author_facet |
Zhiyuan Li Li Ding Luofeng Huang Jonas W. Ringsberg Hui Gong Nicolas Fournier Zhenju Chuang |
author_sort |
Zhiyuan Li |
title |
Cost–Benefit Analysis of a Trans-Arctic Alternative Route to the Suez Canal: A Method Based on High-Fidelity Ship Performance, Weather, and Ice Forecast Models |
title_short |
Cost–Benefit Analysis of a Trans-Arctic Alternative Route to the Suez Canal: A Method Based on High-Fidelity Ship Performance, Weather, and Ice Forecast Models |
title_full |
Cost–Benefit Analysis of a Trans-Arctic Alternative Route to the Suez Canal: A Method Based on High-Fidelity Ship Performance, Weather, and Ice Forecast Models |
title_fullStr |
Cost–Benefit Analysis of a Trans-Arctic Alternative Route to the Suez Canal: A Method Based on High-Fidelity Ship Performance, Weather, and Ice Forecast Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cost–Benefit Analysis of a Trans-Arctic Alternative Route to the Suez Canal: A Method Based on High-Fidelity Ship Performance, Weather, and Ice Forecast Models |
title_sort |
cost–benefit analysis of a trans-arctic alternative route to the suez canal: a method based on high-fidelity ship performance, weather, and ice forecast models |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Icebreaker Northern Sea Route |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Icebreaker Northern Sea Route |
op_source |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering; Volume 11; Issue 4; Pages: 711 |
op_relation |
Ocean Engineering https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 |
container_title |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
711 |
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1774713766220398592 |