Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM
The rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is regarded as the dominant reason for observed warming since the mid-20th century. Based on the Paris Agreement target, this research designs three conceptual pathways to achieve the warming target of 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level by using the Fast...
Published in: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10091231 |
id |
ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2077-1312/10/9/1231/ |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2077-1312/10/9/1231/ 2023-08-20T04:08:29+02:00 Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM Sheng Wu Zhengyu Liu Jinbo Du Yonggang Liu agris 2022-09-02 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10091231 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Physical Oceanography https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse10091231 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Journal of Marine Science and Engineering; Volume 10; Issue 9; Pages: 1231 1.5 °C warming global ocean temperature decadal variability Text 2022 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10091231 2023-08-01T06:19:47Z The rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is regarded as the dominant reason for observed warming since the mid-20th century. Based on the Paris Agreement target, this research designs three conceptual pathways to achieve the warming target of 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level by using the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. The three different scenarios contain one equilibrium experiment (equilibrium, EQ) and two transient experiments (never-exceed pathway, NE; overshoot pathway, OS). Then, we choose a ten year average that achieves 1.5 °C warming to calculate the climatology of the warming situation. Since OS achieves 1.5 °C twice, we obtain four warming situations to explore the response of ocean temperature. In 2100, the global ocean temperature increases over the global region, except the surface of the Southern Ocean. The difference in heat content mainly depends on the cumulative force of CO2 concentration. It is worth pointing out that during the increase in warming, the ocean surface temperature and heat content start to respond in different hemispheres. The weakening of decadal variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic is robust in all three scenarios. However, there is a tremendous growth in the low-pass ocean surface temperature standard deviation in the Southern Ocean in EQ, which is different to NE and OS, and causes the increase in global mean total standard deviation. The shortening of decadal variability can only be seen from the EQ power spectrum, while NE and OS have similar power spectra with pre-industrial runs. It suggests that all previous studies that use equilibrium experiments data may have overestimated the shortening of decadal variability under global warming. Text North Atlantic Southern Ocean MDPI Open Access Publishing Southern Ocean Pacific Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 10 9 1231 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
1.5 °C warming global ocean temperature decadal variability |
spellingShingle |
1.5 °C warming global ocean temperature decadal variability Sheng Wu Zhengyu Liu Jinbo Du Yonggang Liu Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM |
topic_facet |
1.5 °C warming global ocean temperature decadal variability |
description |
The rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is regarded as the dominant reason for observed warming since the mid-20th century. Based on the Paris Agreement target, this research designs three conceptual pathways to achieve the warming target of 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level by using the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. The three different scenarios contain one equilibrium experiment (equilibrium, EQ) and two transient experiments (never-exceed pathway, NE; overshoot pathway, OS). Then, we choose a ten year average that achieves 1.5 °C warming to calculate the climatology of the warming situation. Since OS achieves 1.5 °C twice, we obtain four warming situations to explore the response of ocean temperature. In 2100, the global ocean temperature increases over the global region, except the surface of the Southern Ocean. The difference in heat content mainly depends on the cumulative force of CO2 concentration. It is worth pointing out that during the increase in warming, the ocean surface temperature and heat content start to respond in different hemispheres. The weakening of decadal variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic is robust in all three scenarios. However, there is a tremendous growth in the low-pass ocean surface temperature standard deviation in the Southern Ocean in EQ, which is different to NE and OS, and causes the increase in global mean total standard deviation. The shortening of decadal variability can only be seen from the EQ power spectrum, while NE and OS have similar power spectra with pre-industrial runs. It suggests that all previous studies that use equilibrium experiments data may have overestimated the shortening of decadal variability under global warming. |
format |
Text |
author |
Sheng Wu Zhengyu Liu Jinbo Du Yonggang Liu |
author_facet |
Sheng Wu Zhengyu Liu Jinbo Du Yonggang Liu |
author_sort |
Sheng Wu |
title |
Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM |
title_short |
Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM |
title_full |
Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM |
title_fullStr |
Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM |
title_full_unstemmed |
Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM |
title_sort |
change of global ocean temperature and decadal variability under 1.5 °c warming in foam |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10091231 |
op_coverage |
agris |
geographic |
Southern Ocean Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering; Volume 10; Issue 9; Pages: 1231 |
op_relation |
Physical Oceanography https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse10091231 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10091231 |
container_title |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
1231 |
_version_ |
1774720775980318720 |