Resilience Assessment for the Northern Sea Route Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network
The safety level of the northern sea route (NSR) is a common concern for the related stakeholders. To address the risks triggered by disruptions initiating from the harsh environment and human factors, a comprehensive framework is proposed based on the perspective of resilience. Notably, the resilie...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2076-3417/11/8/3619/ 2023-08-20T04:08:45+02:00 Resilience Assessment for the Northern Sea Route Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Weiliang Qiao Xiaoxue Ma Yang Liu He Lan agris 2021-04-16 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/app11083619 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Marine Science and Engineering https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app11083619 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Applied Sciences; Volume 11; Issue 8; Pages: 3619 northern sea route resilience assessment Bayesian network fuzzy theory Text 2021 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/app11083619 2023-08-01T01:31:22Z The safety level of the northern sea route (NSR) is a common concern for the related stakeholders. To address the risks triggered by disruptions initiating from the harsh environment and human factors, a comprehensive framework is proposed based on the perspective of resilience. Notably, the resilience of NSR is decomposed into three capacities, namely, the absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, and restorative capacity. Moreover, the disruptions to the resilience are identified. Then, a Bayesian network (BN) model is established to quantify resilience, and the prior probabilities of parent nodes and conditional probability table for the network are obtained by fuzzy theory and expert elicitation. Finally, the developed Bayesian networkBN model is simulated to analyze the resilience level of the NSR by back propagation, sensitivity analysis, and information entropy analysis. The general interpretation of these analyses indicates that the emergency response, ice-breaking capacity, and rescue and anti-pollution facilities are the critical factors that contribute to the resilience of the NSR. Good knowledge of the absorptive capacity is the most effective way to reduce the uncertainty of NSR resilience. The present study provides a resilience perspective to understand the safety issues associated with the NSR, which can be seen as the main innovation of this work. Text Northern Sea Route MDPI Open Access Publishing Applied Sciences 11 8 3619 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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MDPI Open Access Publishing |
op_collection_id |
ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
northern sea route resilience assessment Bayesian network fuzzy theory |
spellingShingle |
northern sea route resilience assessment Bayesian network fuzzy theory Weiliang Qiao Xiaoxue Ma Yang Liu He Lan Resilience Assessment for the Northern Sea Route Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network |
topic_facet |
northern sea route resilience assessment Bayesian network fuzzy theory |
description |
The safety level of the northern sea route (NSR) is a common concern for the related stakeholders. To address the risks triggered by disruptions initiating from the harsh environment and human factors, a comprehensive framework is proposed based on the perspective of resilience. Notably, the resilience of NSR is decomposed into three capacities, namely, the absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, and restorative capacity. Moreover, the disruptions to the resilience are identified. Then, a Bayesian network (BN) model is established to quantify resilience, and the prior probabilities of parent nodes and conditional probability table for the network are obtained by fuzzy theory and expert elicitation. Finally, the developed Bayesian networkBN model is simulated to analyze the resilience level of the NSR by back propagation, sensitivity analysis, and information entropy analysis. The general interpretation of these analyses indicates that the emergency response, ice-breaking capacity, and rescue and anti-pollution facilities are the critical factors that contribute to the resilience of the NSR. Good knowledge of the absorptive capacity is the most effective way to reduce the uncertainty of NSR resilience. The present study provides a resilience perspective to understand the safety issues associated with the NSR, which can be seen as the main innovation of this work. |
format |
Text |
author |
Weiliang Qiao Xiaoxue Ma Yang Liu He Lan |
author_facet |
Weiliang Qiao Xiaoxue Ma Yang Liu He Lan |
author_sort |
Weiliang Qiao |
title |
Resilience Assessment for the Northern Sea Route Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network |
title_short |
Resilience Assessment for the Northern Sea Route Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network |
title_full |
Resilience Assessment for the Northern Sea Route Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network |
title_fullStr |
Resilience Assessment for the Northern Sea Route Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network |
title_full_unstemmed |
Resilience Assessment for the Northern Sea Route Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network |
title_sort |
resilience assessment for the northern sea route based on a fuzzy bayesian network |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/app11083619 |
op_coverage |
agris |
genre |
Northern Sea Route |
genre_facet |
Northern Sea Route |
op_source |
Applied Sciences; Volume 11; Issue 8; Pages: 3619 |
op_relation |
Marine Science and Engineering https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app11083619 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/app11083619 |
container_title |
Applied Sciences |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
3619 |
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1774721230262239232 |