Probabilistic Resilience Analysis of the Icelandic Power System under Extreme Weather
This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for assessing power system resilience, motivated by the extreme weather storm experienced in Iceland in December 2019. The methodology is built on the basis of models and data available to the Icelandic transmission system operator in anticipation of t...
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2076-3417/10/15/5089/ 2023-08-20T04:07:27+02:00 Probabilistic Resilience Analysis of the Icelandic Power System under Extreme Weather Efthymios Karangelos Samuel Perkin Louis Wehenkel agris 2020-07-24 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/app10155089 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Energy Science and Technology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10155089 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Applied Sciences; Volume 10; Issue 15; Pages: 5089 attacker-defender probabilistic resilience extreme weather failure rates contingencies Text 2020 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/app10155089 2023-07-31T23:49:18Z This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for assessing power system resilience, motivated by the extreme weather storm experienced in Iceland in December 2019. The methodology is built on the basis of models and data available to the Icelandic transmission system operator in anticipation of the said storm. We study resilience in terms of the ability of the system to contain further service disruption, while potentially operating with reduced component availability due to the storm impact. To do so, we develop a Monte Carlo assessment framework combining weather-dependent component failure probabilities, enumerated through historical failure rate data and forecasted wind-speed data, with a bi-level attacker-defender optimization model for vulnerability identification. Our findings suggest that the ability of the Icelandic power system to contain service disruption moderately reduces with the storm-induced potential reduction of its available components. In other words, and as also validated in practice, the system is indeed resilient. Text Iceland MDPI Open Access Publishing Applied Sciences 10 15 5089 |
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Open Polar |
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MDPI Open Access Publishing |
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ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
attacker-defender probabilistic resilience extreme weather failure rates contingencies |
spellingShingle |
attacker-defender probabilistic resilience extreme weather failure rates contingencies Efthymios Karangelos Samuel Perkin Louis Wehenkel Probabilistic Resilience Analysis of the Icelandic Power System under Extreme Weather |
topic_facet |
attacker-defender probabilistic resilience extreme weather failure rates contingencies |
description |
This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for assessing power system resilience, motivated by the extreme weather storm experienced in Iceland in December 2019. The methodology is built on the basis of models and data available to the Icelandic transmission system operator in anticipation of the said storm. We study resilience in terms of the ability of the system to contain further service disruption, while potentially operating with reduced component availability due to the storm impact. To do so, we develop a Monte Carlo assessment framework combining weather-dependent component failure probabilities, enumerated through historical failure rate data and forecasted wind-speed data, with a bi-level attacker-defender optimization model for vulnerability identification. Our findings suggest that the ability of the Icelandic power system to contain service disruption moderately reduces with the storm-induced potential reduction of its available components. In other words, and as also validated in practice, the system is indeed resilient. |
format |
Text |
author |
Efthymios Karangelos Samuel Perkin Louis Wehenkel |
author_facet |
Efthymios Karangelos Samuel Perkin Louis Wehenkel |
author_sort |
Efthymios Karangelos |
title |
Probabilistic Resilience Analysis of the Icelandic Power System under Extreme Weather |
title_short |
Probabilistic Resilience Analysis of the Icelandic Power System under Extreme Weather |
title_full |
Probabilistic Resilience Analysis of the Icelandic Power System under Extreme Weather |
title_fullStr |
Probabilistic Resilience Analysis of the Icelandic Power System under Extreme Weather |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probabilistic Resilience Analysis of the Icelandic Power System under Extreme Weather |
title_sort |
probabilistic resilience analysis of the icelandic power system under extreme weather |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/app10155089 |
op_coverage |
agris |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
Applied Sciences; Volume 10; Issue 15; Pages: 5089 |
op_relation |
Energy Science and Technology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10155089 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/app10155089 |
container_title |
Applied Sciences |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
15 |
container_start_page |
5089 |
_version_ |
1774719094953607168 |