Large Earthquakes in Subduction Zones around the Polar Regions as a Possible Reason for Rapid Climate Warming in the Arctic and Glacier Collapse in West Antarctica

• Published in: Geosciences
• Main Authors: Leopold I. Lobkovsky, Alexey A. Baranov, Igor A. Garagash, Mukamay M. Ramazanov, Irina S. Vladimirova, Yurii V. Gabsatarov, Dmitry A. Alekseev, Igor P. Semiletov
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute 2023
• Subjects: climate warming; Arctic; Antarctica; permafrost; metastable gas hydrates; methane emission; glacier collapse; Pine Island Glacier; Thwaites Glacier; large earthquakes; tectonic deformation waves; Aleutian subduction zone; Chilean subduction zone; trigger mechanisms; Antarctic; West Antarctica; Tonga; Antarc*; Ice; Kamchatka; Pine Island
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences13060171

A correlation is observed between changes in the level of Earth’s seismic activity and increments of the atmospheric methane concentration over the past 40 years. Trigger mechanisms are proposed for methane emissions and glacier collapse in polar regions. These mechanisms are due to deformation waves caused by large earthquakes in subduction zones located near the polar regions: the Aleutian and Kuril–Kamchatka subduction zones, closest to the Arctic, and the Antarctica–Chilean and Tonga–Kermadec–Macquarie subduction zones. Disturbances of the lithosphere are transmitted over the distances of 3000–4000 km and more at a speed of about 100 km/year. Additional associated stresses come to the Arctic and Antarctica several decades after the occurrence of large earthquakes. In the Arctic zone, additional stresses affect the low-permeability structure of gas bearing sedimentary strata, causing increased methane emission and climate warming. In West Antarctica, deformation waves could trigger the acceleration and intensive collapse of West Antarctic glaciers, which has been observed since the 1970s. These waves are also capable of activating dormant volcanoes located under the sheet glaciers of West Antarctica, leading to an increase in heat flux, to the melting of ice at the glaciers’ base, and to their accelerated sliding towards the ocean, as is happening with the Thwaites Glacier.