Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change
Phoracantha semipunctata is a destructive invasive alien forest pest worldwide. It primarily damages the eucalyptus via adults, affecting almost all parts of the eucalyptus. Its larvae develop in almost all major tissues of the plant. Phoracantha semipunctata spreads both via the migration of adults...
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2023
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ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2075-4450/14/1/84/ 2023-08-20T04:02:22+02:00 Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change Haoxiang Zhao Xiaoqing Xian Te Liang Fanghao Wan Juan Shi Wanxue Liu agris 2023-01-13 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/insects14010084 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/insects14010084 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Insects; Volume 14; Issue 1; Pages: 84 invasive alien forest pest Phoracantha semipunctata potential geographical distribution niche dynamic distribution centroid Text 2023 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/insects14010084 2023-08-01T08:17:24Z Phoracantha semipunctata is a destructive invasive alien forest pest worldwide. It primarily damages the eucalyptus via adults, affecting almost all parts of the eucalyptus. Its larvae develop in almost all major tissues of the plant. Phoracantha semipunctata spreads both via the migration of adults and global trade in intercontinental translocation. Currently, this pest has spread to six continents worldwide, except Antarctica, resulting in substantial economic losses. Based on global occurrence data and environmental variables, the potential global geographical distribution of P. semipunctata was predicted using an ensemble model. The centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion scheme were selected to assess niche dynamics during the global invasion process. Our results indicated that the AUC and TSS values of the ensemble model were 0.993 and 0.917, respectively, indicating the high prediction accuracy of the model. The distribution pattern of P. semipunctata is primarily attributed to the temperature seasonality (bio4), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), and human influence index variables. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata is primarily in western and southwestern Asia, western Europe, western and southern North America, southern South America, southern Africa, and eastern and southern Oceania. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata showed a downward trend in the 2030s and the 2050s. The distribution centroid showed a general tendency to shift southward from the near-current to future climate. Phoracantha semipunctata has largely conserved its niche during the global invasion process. More attention should be paid to the early warning, prevention, and control of P. semipunctata in the countries and regions where it has not yet become invasive. Text Antarc* Antarctica MDPI Open Access Publishing Insects 14 1 84 |
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Open Polar |
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MDPI Open Access Publishing |
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ftmdpi |
language |
English |
topic |
invasive alien forest pest Phoracantha semipunctata potential geographical distribution niche dynamic distribution centroid |
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invasive alien forest pest Phoracantha semipunctata potential geographical distribution niche dynamic distribution centroid Haoxiang Zhao Xiaoqing Xian Te Liang Fanghao Wan Juan Shi Wanxue Liu Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change |
topic_facet |
invasive alien forest pest Phoracantha semipunctata potential geographical distribution niche dynamic distribution centroid |
description |
Phoracantha semipunctata is a destructive invasive alien forest pest worldwide. It primarily damages the eucalyptus via adults, affecting almost all parts of the eucalyptus. Its larvae develop in almost all major tissues of the plant. Phoracantha semipunctata spreads both via the migration of adults and global trade in intercontinental translocation. Currently, this pest has spread to six continents worldwide, except Antarctica, resulting in substantial economic losses. Based on global occurrence data and environmental variables, the potential global geographical distribution of P. semipunctata was predicted using an ensemble model. The centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion scheme were selected to assess niche dynamics during the global invasion process. Our results indicated that the AUC and TSS values of the ensemble model were 0.993 and 0.917, respectively, indicating the high prediction accuracy of the model. The distribution pattern of P. semipunctata is primarily attributed to the temperature seasonality (bio4), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), and human influence index variables. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata is primarily in western and southwestern Asia, western Europe, western and southern North America, southern South America, southern Africa, and eastern and southern Oceania. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata showed a downward trend in the 2030s and the 2050s. The distribution centroid showed a general tendency to shift southward from the near-current to future climate. Phoracantha semipunctata has largely conserved its niche during the global invasion process. More attention should be paid to the early warning, prevention, and control of P. semipunctata in the countries and regions where it has not yet become invasive. |
format |
Text |
author |
Haoxiang Zhao Xiaoqing Xian Te Liang Fanghao Wan Juan Shi Wanxue Liu |
author_facet |
Haoxiang Zhao Xiaoqing Xian Te Liang Fanghao Wan Juan Shi Wanxue Liu |
author_sort |
Haoxiang Zhao |
title |
Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change |
title_short |
Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change |
title_full |
Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change |
title_fullStr |
Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change |
title_sort |
constructing an ensemble model and niche comparison for the management planning of eucalyptus longhorned borer phoracantha semipunctata under climate change |
publisher |
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/insects14010084 |
op_coverage |
agris |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica |
op_source |
Insects; Volume 14; Issue 1; Pages: 84 |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/insects14010084 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/insects14010084 |
container_title |
Insects |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
84 |
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1774712796949250048 |