Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands

Recent observations and publications have presented the possibility of a high and accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) later this century due to ice sheet instability and retreat in Antarctica. Under a high warming scenario, this may result in a sea level in 2100 that is up to 2 m higher than present an...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:Water
Main Authors: Jos van Alphen, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Ferdinand Diermanse
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute 2022
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101527
id ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4441/14/10/1527/
record_format openpolar
spelling ftmdpi:oai:mdpi.com:/2073-4441/14/10/1527/ 2023-08-20T04:02:24+02:00 Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands Jos van Alphen Marjolijn Haasnoot Ferdinand Diermanse agris 2022-05-10 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101527 EN eng Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Hydrology https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14101527 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Water; Volume 14; Issue 10; Pages: 1527 sea-level rise adaptation flood risk water resources low-lying coasts Text 2022 ftmdpi https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101527 2023-08-01T05:00:16Z Recent observations and publications have presented the possibility of a high and accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) later this century due to ice sheet instability and retreat in Antarctica. Under a high warming scenario, this may result in a sea level in 2100 that is up to 2 m higher than present and 5 m in 2150. The large uncertainties in these projections significantly increase the challenge for investment planning in coastal strategies in densely populated coastal zones such as the Netherlands. In this paper, we present the results of two studies that were carried out within the framework of the Dutch Delta Programme. The first study showed that it is not only the absolute SLR that presents a challenge but also the annual rate of rise. The latter impacts the lifetime of constructions such as barriers and pumping stations. When the rate of sea-level rise increases up to several centimeters per year, the intended lifetime of a flood defense structure may be reduced from a century to several decades. This new challenge requires new technologies, experiments, strategies, and governance. The second study explored different strategies for the long term to adapt to high SLR (>1 m) and assessed the consequences thereof on adaptation and developments in the coming 2–3 decades. We believe that strategic choices have to be made regarding the permanent closure of estuaries, the pumping or periodic storage of high river discharges, agriculture in an increasingly saline coastal area, and the maintenance of the coastline by beach nourishments. These strategic choices have to be complemented by no-regret measures such as spatial reservations for future sand extraction (for beach nourishments) and future expansion of flood defenses, water discharge, and water storage. In addition, it is advised to include flexibility in the design of new infrastructure. Text Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet MDPI Open Access Publishing Water 14 10 1527
institution Open Polar
collection MDPI Open Access Publishing
op_collection_id ftmdpi
language English
topic sea-level rise
adaptation
flood risk
water resources
low-lying coasts
spellingShingle sea-level rise
adaptation
flood risk
water resources
low-lying coasts
Jos van Alphen
Marjolijn Haasnoot
Ferdinand Diermanse
Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands
topic_facet sea-level rise
adaptation
flood risk
water resources
low-lying coasts
description Recent observations and publications have presented the possibility of a high and accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) later this century due to ice sheet instability and retreat in Antarctica. Under a high warming scenario, this may result in a sea level in 2100 that is up to 2 m higher than present and 5 m in 2150. The large uncertainties in these projections significantly increase the challenge for investment planning in coastal strategies in densely populated coastal zones such as the Netherlands. In this paper, we present the results of two studies that were carried out within the framework of the Dutch Delta Programme. The first study showed that it is not only the absolute SLR that presents a challenge but also the annual rate of rise. The latter impacts the lifetime of constructions such as barriers and pumping stations. When the rate of sea-level rise increases up to several centimeters per year, the intended lifetime of a flood defense structure may be reduced from a century to several decades. This new challenge requires new technologies, experiments, strategies, and governance. The second study explored different strategies for the long term to adapt to high SLR (>1 m) and assessed the consequences thereof on adaptation and developments in the coming 2–3 decades. We believe that strategic choices have to be made regarding the permanent closure of estuaries, the pumping or periodic storage of high river discharges, agriculture in an increasingly saline coastal area, and the maintenance of the coastline by beach nourishments. These strategic choices have to be complemented by no-regret measures such as spatial reservations for future sand extraction (for beach nourishments) and future expansion of flood defenses, water discharge, and water storage. In addition, it is advised to include flexibility in the design of new infrastructure.
format Text
author Jos van Alphen
Marjolijn Haasnoot
Ferdinand Diermanse
author_facet Jos van Alphen
Marjolijn Haasnoot
Ferdinand Diermanse
author_sort Jos van Alphen
title Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands
title_short Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands
title_full Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands
title_fullStr Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands
title_full_unstemmed Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands
title_sort uncertain accelerated sea-level rise, potential consequences, and adaptive strategies in the netherlands
publisher Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
publishDate 2022
url https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101527
op_coverage agris
genre Antarc*
Antarctica
Ice Sheet
genre_facet Antarc*
Antarctica
Ice Sheet
op_source Water; Volume 14; Issue 10; Pages: 1527
op_relation Hydrology
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14101527
op_rights https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101527
container_title Water
container_volume 14
container_issue 10
container_start_page 1527
_version_ 1774712831191547904